Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 9 And 16

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of December 9

December 9

December 10

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November

103.1

102.4

Productivity - Q3 (r)

-0.1%

-0.3

-0.1

Unit Labor Costs

3.2

3.6

4.4

December 11

Consumer Price Index - November

0.2%

0.4

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

Energy

1.4

2.7

FMOC

Treasury Budget - November

-$196.0B

-134.5

-195.0

December 12

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

203

212

Producer Price Index - November

0.2%

0.4

0.2

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.1

Energy

December 13

Retail Sales - November

0.5%

0.3

0.4

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.2

0.4

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.4

0.1

Retail Sales, Autos

0.5

Export Prices - November

0.1%

-0.1

0.1

Import Prices

0.1

-0.5

0.2

Business Inventories - October

0.3%

0.0

0.3

Week of December 17

December 16

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

5.0

2.9

4.5

PMI Services Flash Index

52.5

51.6

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

52.8

52.6

NAHB Index

71

70

70

December 17

Housing Starts - November

1.300M

1.314

1.320

Building Permits

1.380

1.461

1.398

Industrial Production - November

0.9%

-0.8

0.8

Capacity Utilization

76.9

76.7

77.0

Manufacturing

0.7

-0.6

0.5

JOLTS-October

6.950M

7.024

December 18

December 19

Initial Unemployment Claims

Philadelphia Fed Survey

9.0

10.4

8.5

Current Account - Q3

-$121.0B

-128.2

Existing Home Sales - November

5.420M

5.460

5.47

Leading Indicators - Nobember

0.2%

-0.1

0.2

December 20

GDP - Q3 (f)

2.1%

2.1

2.1

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.7

1.7

PCE

PCE Deflator

PCE Core Deflator

Personal Income - November

0.3%

0.0

0.3

Personal Spending

0.5

0.3

0.5

PCE Price Index

Core PCE Price Index

Real Personal Spending

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r)

99.2

99.2

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.