Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 13 And 20

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of December 13

December 14

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November

98.2

98.2

Producer Price Index - November

0.6%

0.6

0,6

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.4

0.4

0.4

December 15

Retail Sales - November

0.5%

1.7

0.8

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.6

1.7

1.0

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

25.0

30.9

27.3

Export Prices -  November

0.5%

1.5

0.5

Import Prices

0.4

1.2

0.7

Business Inventories - October

1.1%

0.8

1.1

NAHB Index

84

83

83

FMOC

0.125%

0.125

December 16

Initial Unemployment Claims

200K

184

197

Housing Starts - November

1.560M

1.520

1.570

Building Permits

1.670

1.650

1.660

Philadelphia Fed Survey

25

39

30

Industrial Production - November

0.6%

1.6

0.7

Capacity Utilization

76.8

76.4

76.8

Manufacturing

0.6

1.2

0.8

Week of December 20

December 20

Leading Indicators - Nobember

0.5%

0.9

0.8

December 21

Current Account - Q3

-$203.5B

-190.3

December 22

GDP - Q3 (f)

2.1%

2.1

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - November

0.35

0.76

Existing Home Sales - November

6.38M

6.340

December 23

Initial Unemployment Claims

Durable Goods Orders - November

2.2%

-0.4

Personal Income - November

0.6%

0.5

0.3

Personal Spending

0.6

1.3

0.6

New Home Sales - November 

760K

745

760

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r)

70.4

70.4