Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 3 and April 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 3

April 3

ISM (Mfg) - March

56.8

55.7

57.1

Construction Spending - February

0.8%

0.5

1.0

April 4

Auto Sales* - March

17.5M

17.58

17.4

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

International Trade - February

-$46.0B

-48.5

-44.5

Factory Orders - February

1.1%

1.2

1.0

Durable Goods Orders

1.7

2.0

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.4

April 5

ADP Employment Report - March

185K

298

170

ISM Services - March

57.1

57.6

57.0

April 6

Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

258

250

April 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - March

190K

235

178

Private

185

227

170

Manufacturing

17

28

Unemployment

4.7%

4.7

4.7

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

Wholesale Inventories - February

0.4%

-0.2

0.4

Consumer Credit - February

$16.0B

8.8

15.0

Week of April 10

April 11

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - March

104.5

105.3

April 12

Export Prices - March

0.0%

0.3

Import Prices

-0.4

0.2

Treasury Budget - March

-$150.0B

-192

April 13

PPI-FD - March

0.0%

0.3

PPI-FD, less food and energy

0.2

0.3

April 14

Consumer Price Index - March

0.0%

0.1

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

Retail Sales - March

0.2%

0.1

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.2

0.2

Business Inventories - February

0.3%

0.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - April (p)