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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of April 12 |
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April 12 |
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Treasury Budget - March |
-$780.0B |
-296.3 |
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April 13 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - March |
98.0 |
95.8 |
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Consumer Price Index - March |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.5 |
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Core CPI |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
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Energy |
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April 14 |
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Export Prices - March |
1.0% |
1.6 |
1.0 |
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Import Prices |
0.9 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
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Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum |
0.5 |
0.5 |
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April 15 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
725K |
744 |
700 |
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Retail Sales - March |
3.5% |
-3.0 |
5.5 |
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Retail Sales, ex Autos |
3.2 |
-2.7 |
5.0 |
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Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas |
2.7 |
-3.3 |
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Retail Sales, Autos |
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
18.0 |
17.4 |
20.0 |
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Philadelphia Fed Survey |
43.0 |
51.8 |
44.5 |
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Industrial Production - March |
3.5% |
-2.2 |
2.8 |
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Manufacturing |
4.0 |
-3.1 |
3.5 |
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Capacity Utilization |
77.0 |
73.8 |
75.6 |
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Business Inventories - February |
0.5% |
0.3 |
0.5 |
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NAHB Index - April |
84 |
82 |
83 |
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April 16 |
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Housing Starts - March |
1.585M |
1.421 |
1.600 |
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Building Permits |
1.750 |
1.682 |
1.750 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - April (p) |
88.0 |
84.9 |
89.0 |
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Week of April 19 |
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April 22 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index - March |
0.50 |
-1.09 |
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Leading Indicators - March |
0.6% |
0.2 |
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Existing Home Sales - March |
6.254M |
6.220 |
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April 23 |
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PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
60 |
59.1 |
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PMI Services Flash Index |
60.0 |
60.4 |
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New Home Sales - March |
862K |
775 |
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