Economic Data Forecast For The Weeks Of Sept. 21 And 28

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Week of September 21

September 21

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - August

-0.8

-0.08

September 22

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

-2

4

September 23

PMI Manufacturing - Flash

53.0

53.9

PMI Services Flash

55.9

56.5

September 24

Current Account - Q2

-$260.B

-226.8

New Home Sales - August

-620K

607

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

9

17

September 25

Durable Goods Orders - August

-0.3%

1.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r)

47.8

47.8

Week of September 28

September 28

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

7.2

11.6

September 29

S&P Case/Shiller Index - July

Twenty City M/M

-0.2%

0.4

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.2

Twenty City Y/Y

2.2

2.1

FHFA Home Price Index - July

0.1%

0.0

Consumer Confidence - September

89.4

89.4

JOLTS - August

7.225K

7.271

September 30

ADP Employment Report - September 

85

38

GDP - Q2 (f)

1.5%

1.5

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

6.4

6.4

PCE

3.4

3.4

PCE Deflator

5.3

5.3

PCE Core Deflator

3.6

3.6

Personal Income - August

0.3%

0.4

Personal Spending

0.8

0.2

PCE Price Index

0.3

0.2

Core PCE Price Index

0.3

0.2

Real Personal Spending

International Trade in Goods - August (a)*

-$108.5B

-118.3

Wholesale Inventories - August (a)

0.2%

1.3

Chicago PMI - September

49.8

47.1

October 1

ISM (Mfg) - Sept

54.2

54.6

ISM Prices

70.0

71.1

Construction Spending - August

0.1%

0.5

October 2

Auto Sales - September

16.90M

16.76

Car Sales

2.70

2.76

Truck Sales

14.20

14.03

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

110K

162

Private

85

127

Core Private*

Manufacturing

10

16

Unemployment

4.2%

4.1

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.3