Economic Data Forecast For The Weeks Of May 3 And 10

Person Holding Blue and Clear Ballpoint Pen

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of May 3
May 3
PMI Manufacturing Index - April	60.6	60.6
ISM (Mfg) - April	65.2	64.7	65.0

Construction Spending - March	2.0%	-0.8	2.0

Auto Sales* - April	17.5M	17.8
Car Sales	4.0	4.2
Truck Sales	13.5	13.5

May 4
International Trade - March	-$73.2B	-71.1	-74.3
Factory Orders - March	1.3%	-0.8	1.3
ISM Services - April	64.2	63.7	64.3

May 5
ADP Employment Report - April	525K	517	815
PMI Services Index	63.1	63.1

May 6
Initial Jobless Claims	600K	553	540

Productivity - Q1 (p)	2.2%	-4.2	4.2
Unit Labor Costs	-0.4	6.0	-1.0

May 7
Nonfarm Payrolls - April	875K	916	978
Private	860	780	880
Manufacturing	85	53	58
Unemployment	5.7%	6.0	5.7
Average Workweek	34.9HR	34.9	34.9
Average Hourly Earnings	0.2%	-0.1	0.1

Wholesale Inventories - March	1.4%	0.6	1.4
Consumer Credit - March	$14.0B	27.6	20

Week of May 11
May 11
NFIB Small Business Optimism - April	100.0	98.2
JOLTS -March	7.500M	7.367

May 12
Consumer Price Index - April	0.2%	0.6
Core CPI	0.3	0.3

Treasury Budget - April	-$40.0B	-659.6

May 13
Producer Price Index - April	0.2%	1.0
PPI less food, energy and trade services	0.2	0.6

May 14
Retail Sales - April	0.2%	9.8
Retail Sales, ex Autos	0.2	8.4
Retail Sales,ex autos and gas	0.3	8.2

Export Prices - April	0.6%	2.1
Import Prices	0.6	1.2
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum	0.6	0.9

Industrial Production - April	3.5%	1.4
Capacity Utilization	76.9	74.4
Manufacturing	3.0	2.7

Business Inventories - March	0.4%	0.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - May (p)	90.2	88.3