Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 3 And 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of September 3

September 4

PMI Manufacturing Index - August

54.3

54.5

54.5

ISM (Mfg) - August

57.9

58.1

57.6

Construction Spending - July

0.4%

-1.1

0.4

September 5

Auto Sales* - August

17.0

16.77

16.9

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

International Trade - July

-$50.0B

-46.3

-50.2

September 6

Initial Unemployment Claims

213K

213

213

ADP Employment Report - August

190

219

182

Productivity - Q2 (r)

3.0%

2.9

3.0

Unit Labor Costs

-1.0

-0.9

-1.0

PMI Services Index - August

55.2

55.2

55.2

ISM Services - August

56.7

55.7

56.8

Factory Orders - June

-0.6%

0.7

-0.7

Durable Goods Orders

-1.7

-1.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

0.5

September 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - August

200K

157

198

Private

190

170

190

Manufacturing

25

37

21

Unemployment

3.8%

3.9

3.8

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

0.3

Week of September 10

September 10

Consumer Credit - July

$14.0B

10.2

September 11

JOLTS - July

6.600M

6.650

Wholesale Inventories - July

September 12

Producer Price Index - August

0.2%

0.0

PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.3

September 13

Consumer Price Index - August

0.2%

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget - August

-$183.0B

-76.9

September 14

Retail Sales - August

0.6%

0.5

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.6

Retail Sales, Autos

0.5

0.6

Export Prices - August

-0.1%

-0.5

Import Prices

-0.4

0.0

Import Prices, ex-Petroleum

-0.1

0.1

Industrial Production - August

0.2%

0,1

Capacity Utilization

78.2

78.1

Manufacturing

0.2

0.3

Business Inventories - July

0.5%

0.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (p)

96.2

96.2