Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 3 and 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of December 3

December 3

PMI Manufacturing Index - November

54.4

54.4

55.4

ISM (Mfg) - November

58.1

57.7

57.2

Construction Spending - October

0.4%

0.0

0.4

December 4

Auto Sales* - November

17.3M

17.5

17.2

Car Sales

5.2

5.5

Truck Sales

12.1

12.0

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

December 5

ADP Employment Report - November

200K

227

175

Productivity - Q3 (r)

2.2%

2.2

2.3

Unit Labor Costs

1.2

1.2

1.1

PMI Services Index

54.4

54.4

54.4

ISM Services - November

60.0

60.3

59.0

December 6

Initial Unemployment Claims

223K

234

225

International Trade - October

-$55.1B

54.0

54.9

Factory Orders - October

-1.9%

0.7

-2.0

Durable Goods Orders

-4.4

0.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.6

0.6

December 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - November

205K

250

190

Private

200

246

185

Manufacturing

25

32

20

Unemployment

3.7%

3.7

3.7

Average Workweek

0.2

0.2

0.3

Average Hourly Earnings

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (p)

97.7

97.5

97.5

Wholesale Inventories - October (r)

0.7%

0.7

0.6

Consumer Credit - October

$17.0B

10.9

15.3

Week of December 10

December 11

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November

107.0

107.4

Producer Price Index - November

0.1%

0.6

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2%

0.2

December 12

Consumer Price Index - November

0.1%

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget - November

-$204B

-100.5

December 13

Export Prices - November

-0.4%

0.4

Import Prices

-1.3

0.5

December 14

Retail Sales - November

0.3%

0.8

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.3

0.7

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.6

0.3

Retail Sales, Autos

1.1

Industrial Production - November

0.2%

0.1

Capacity Utilization

78.5

78.4

Manufacturing

0.3

0.3

Business Inventories - October

0.6%

0.3