It's a federal case, Donald Trump is not going to be allowed to hide his tax returns according to a Federal court ruling that denied him immunity. But he can appeal right up to the Supremes, which would be an interesting side-bar to the coming impeachment investigations. If the man uses his office to boost his electoral chances, surely he would also make use of his fame to increase his income and hide the details from critics.
El Presidente was also forced to get back into dealing with the Middle East and Syria despite the defeat of his buddy Bibi Netanyahu in Israel, after his call to pull back led to criticisms from the Republicans in Congress. Trumpet claimed that ISIS has been defeated, but Sen. Mitch McConnell disagreed.
Meanwhile, Eric Bradley of heritage auctions is offering to sell to my company the domain name “democracy.com” via a sealed bidding war to end Oct. 25.
I am not sure if it is the overlap with the Jewish Feast of Sukkoth (Booths, for Harvest huts) or the vogue for treating Christopher Columbus as a colonialist oppressor, but this year Columbus Day will not be a stock market holiday. It will be a Federal one, and my newsletter will not be published next Monday or the Monday after, both of which are Jewish feasts. It will also not come out on Wednesday this week which is the Fast-Day of Atonement.
Happily, there are no plans to re-name Columbus, Ohio, where some relatives live.
The hope for new China deals has boosted markets in Europe by 0.6 to 0.7%, but the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is down 1.11% after another day of dissidence against the government and China. Also down is the Nikkei 225, the broadest Japanese stock tracker.
Big British global stocks are doing much better than smaller ones in anticipation of a crisis over a no-deal Brexit if the country crashes out, now seems unlikely.
Meanwhile, Jim Cramer predicts that US-China trade talks will get nowhere because China won't give way to the basic US demands on state subsidies and theft of intellectual property or patents.
Canada sales
*Alimentation Couche-Tard and Brookfield Asset Management, two Canada listed stocks we sold, were both dumped by insiders. ATD director Real Plourde sold C$ 1.006 mn in stock and Brian Kingston of BAM sold C$21.436 mn in stock. Both shares fell after the news came out. BAM also plans to report on its Q3 Nov. 14.
Utes
*Richard Suttmeier, a former colleague, says utes are the most over-valued part of the investment universe now. Yet his Global Market Consultants' tweets are not having the expected result. Today Algonquin (AQN) rose 1.15%. It will fall tomorrow as there is a new issue of shares being done.
*Eon.SE (EONGY) rose 2.5% more. It is another ute.
*Vodafone rose 1.6% today on its being rated buy by Ford Research and strong buy by Market Edge today. VOD is very near breaking the $20 ceiling of the past downtrend, as it hit $19.85 at the open. It mostly runs phone systems outside the UK.
*Multichoice, the TV spinoff from Naspers of South Africa, rose to over $8 again today. It was Ippo's at $6.50 so it has done wonderfully.
Oil patch
*The rise in the Brent crude price of 1.4% today boosted the prices of BP plc and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-B).
*Norwegian Hoegh preferreds are up nearly 1% on the recommendation by yield investor Rida Morwa in seekingalpha.com despite his having totally ignored the green appeal of HMLP-A pointed out by Gen. Joe Shaefer (which led to my following his buy.) Tanker and shipping stocks are on a roll over higher rates and because International Seaways sold back 49.9% of its equity to Qatar LNG, its former JV partner, for $123 mn and rose 7%.
*Cosan of Brazil was chopped by HSBC analysts to equal weight from buy and its share rose over a half percent. It makes ethylene from sugar cane waste and runs gas stations in Latin America.
*Pengrowth rose 5% at the opening today before losing some air. PGHEF is a very high yielding share but the dividend may be at risk, why the Canadian is in the speculative portfolio.
Drugs
*Genfit, the French developer of treatments for non-alcoholic stearo-hepatitis (NASH) and biliary cholangitis, is in the dumps, off 6.25% today hitting a new yearly low again (as it did last Monday.) Its drug, elafibranor, acts on perosisome proliferator-actived receptors alpha and delta to treat NASH. Its rivals are 4 US firms which have more of a following on Q: Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) which will present at an H.C. Wainwright NASH conference Oct. 21; Intercept Pharma (ICPT of NYC) which is ahead of the others with a obticholic synthetic bile acid treatment; Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) which presented last weekend at the Cantor Global Healthcare conference. None of these is yet a clear winner. Today NGM Biopharma reported disappointing results from its phase II trials in NASH of aldafermin and the US stock crashed 17%. This is overdone. There is huge demand for a NASH cure.
And GNFT has a special sauce, euros 282 mn of cash and 19.2 mn of receivables due within a year, versus euros 47.2 of liabilities due within 12 mos and euros 180 mn due later. So it has more cash than total liabilities to the tune of euros 73.4 mn.
*At the close of its direct institutional ADR offering, Australia's Benitec Biopharma gained 4.6%. The smart money can lure retail investors to follow suit.
*Today Zymeworks of Canada gained nearly 6%. It is still ahead 4.6% later in the day. ZYME
*Swiss Roche faces a patent challenge from UCB over its US sub Genentech's patent for antibodies targeting interleukin-17A, a pro-inflammatory cytokine, over which it is suing Eli Lilly over an arthritis med. This will make money for the lawyers but RHHBY is up today by a half percent.
*Compugen, the Israeli drug developer, is up 1.65% today.
*Its landsman, Teva, rose 2.5% at the opening and is up 1.72% today and well over my average-down price at $7.07.
*Danish Novo Nordisk gained 1.4% today. My theory on why this has happened is that the House of Representatives and the White House will have to abandon their attempt to reform drug prices if there is an impeachment inquiry focusing attention and causing bad blood.
Spanish Speakers
*Antofagasta (ANFGF) rose 2.4% in Britain after Financial Times columnist John Dizard pointed out that the lower price of copper belies the need for the red metal for wind and solar alternative energy needs. And also that if carbon cleanup doesn't take place Europeans will have to buy a lot of air conditioners which will also up copper demand. Today in US trading, the rise continued. ANFGF has its primary listing in London for historic reasons, and the ADR is based on the UK stock.
*GlaxoSmithKline in Mexico will work with Google's Alphabet to develop a way to predict where flu cases are likeliest, with 97% precision, write Eduardo Garcia in www.sentidoncomun.co.mex. This is part of its focus on infectious diseases and immunization.
*Banco Santander Chair Ana Patricia Botin on Oct. 21 will join the boards of both its main US subs, Santander Holdings and Santander Bank which turned attention to the good growth of US profits at the Spanish bank. Ms. Botin is a member of the 4th generation at SAN and as a Bryn Mawr graduate, she is also one of its best English-speakers. SAN stock rose 0.52% in US trading so far. We tend to focus on its Latin American franchise and ignore its US one.
Insurance, and Finance:
*AIA Group (AAIGF) is based in Hong Kong because of having been founded there but its listing can easily be moved to Singapore or the USA if tensions over civil rights get out of hand. It was rated at the same level as the Hong Kong Government by Moody's last week but fell 2% on the pink sheets. The government rating counts as a ceiling for private sector firms. I do not consider it to be a true Hong Kong firm as it sells policies all over Asia.
*Another blue-chip there is Hang Seng Bank, also rated highest by Moody's for now. However, it is less safe because its parent, HSBC of Britain, is chopping 10,000 jobs to boost earnings. It may be hit if cuts are forced on Hong Kong. The bank produces the key Hang Seng Index which fell 1.11% after the riots, and HSNGF lost 2.5% itself. Banks are more local than insurers.
*Clydesdale & Yorkshire Banking Group is finally looking sprightly, up a half percent today. It is probably purely a technical result of the Brexit impasse.
Funds
*Britain's Royal Mint is launching an exchange-traded commodity fund investing in bullion, a follow-up on its business of selling gold coins and bars. It will be backed by the gold the 1100-year-old Mint keeps in its vaults for Britain and other countries. The launch will be early in 2020 with listings in the UK, Italy, and Germany. Holdings in gold-backed ETFs have risen this year by 14% to 81 mn Troy ounces, just a bit below the all-timer record of 82 mn oz hit at the end of 2012. Also boosting the price of the yellow metal was central bank buying which topped $15.7 bn in H1 of this year, according to the World Gold Council, which sponsors the oldest gold fund, SPDR Gold, GLD, which we own. It is now the no. 10 US ETF by size, according to the Financial Times today. GLD and our other gold fund, iShares Gold Trust, IAU, are gaining traction in part because the classic case against owning gold—that it pays no interest—is barely denting investment under present interest rates. Note that IAU shares are worth 10% of those in GLD in gold ounces, and the stock is more volatile and trades at higher volumes in US$s.
*China reportedly bought 100 metric tonnes of gold YTD as it moves its reserves out of dollars over the fear of a trade war. Russia and other central banks reportedly bought another 450 mn metric tonnes in the first 8 months (to end August) according to the World Gold Council.
*The Swedish Krona is falling which hurts the US price of Investor A/B in the short term.
*Mexican REIT Fibra Uno fell 2.5% today in Mexico City. FBASF is worth buying if it falls further.
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