Autos And Nonstore Retail Sales Both Strong In June, Gasoline Down

Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month

Please consider the Census Department report on Advance Retail Sales for June of 2026.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $768.6 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2025.
Total sales for the April 2026 through June 2026 period were up 6.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.
The April 2026 to May 2026 percent change was revised from up 0.9 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent).

The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”

The report only lists nominal sales, not real (inflation-adjusted sales). It’s real sales that feed GDP.

The lead chart doesn’t look right at first glance. Nonstore sales and autos were each up 1.9 percent but total sales were only up 0.2 percent.

More details will help explain.

Month-Over-Month Nominal Retail Sales

Total: 0.2 percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles: -0.2 percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.4 percent
Motor Vehicles: 1.9 percent
Nonstore Sales: 1.9 percent
Food Service: 0.1 percent
Food Stores: -0.2 percent
Gas Stations: -5.3 percent
General Merchandise: 0.1 percent

Weakness in gas stations, food stores, food service, and general merchandise offset huge jumps in motor vehicles and nonstore sales.

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales

Real vs nominal advance retail sales percent change month over month

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over Month Percent Change

Nominal Total: 0.4 percent
Real Total: 0.6 percent

The CPI in June was -0.4 percent. The result is a rare add to real sales by 0.4 percentage points across the board.

Rounding accounts for any discrepancies.

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales in Millions of Dollars

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Detail

Real vs Nominal Sales Notes

Real retail sales peaked in March of 2021 at 233,440. They are now 231,096 That’s a decline of 2,344 or 1.0 percent.
In March of 2021, nominal sales were 603,581. They are now 768,553. That’s an increase of 153,504 or 27.3 percent.

Over 100 percent of the increase in retail sales since March of 2021 is due to inflation.

Yet, I can guarantee there will be numerous comments from mainstream economic illiterates today about the “strong consumer”.

Oh, and didn’t someone campaign on fixing this?

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Percent Change from Year Ago