Growth is weak in four of five employer size categories.
The ADP National Employment Report for July 2026 shows a sudden two-month plunge in large-business employment year-over-year.
Year-Over-Year Misfiring in 4 of 5 Employer Groups
1-19 Employees: 778,000
20-49 Employees: -80,000
50-249 Employees: -103,000
250-599 Employees: 28,000
500+ Employees: 62,000
Excluding businesses with 1-19 Employees: -93,000
The above totals to 685,000 but the sum of the parts is greater than the hole.
ADP reports the national total year-over-year as 650,000 unadjusted.
ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment
Small is 0-49 employees: +698,000
Medium is 50-499: -75,000
Large is 500+ employees: +62,000
ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size Detail
Is employment dead except at the smallest of small businesses?
What we don’t have but need to properly analyze the data is the number of businesses.
ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size
Month-Over-Month Change
1-19 Employees: 27,000
20-49 Employees: -4,000
50-249 Employees: 2,000
250-599 Employees: 6,000
500+ Employees: 13,000
ADP Change in Employment by Small, Medium, Large
This is very weak growth.
The trend small business employment since March, it isn’t pretty.
ADP vs BLS Private Employment Month-Over-Month
The BLS reports Friday.
It’s a crap shoot to interpolate much of anything from these numbers.
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