AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) reported Q3 2026 results on November 9: revenue of $42.3M, 8% below the $46.0M consensus of 8 analysts and $2.3M above our $40.0M forecast. Revenue rose 34% from Q2's $31.5M; the consensus needed 46%.
Gateways fell short. Gateway equipment and software brought in $20.6M, down from $24.4M in Q2, at a product gross margin of -9.1%. Inventory rose to $79.0M from $28.4M in June, so hardware that looked ready to ship is still on the balance sheet.
Government work filled the gap. Services revenue, which the 10-Q ties to U.S. government agreements, was $21.8M, three times Q2's $7.1M, at an 86.8% margin. It produced nearly all of the quarter's $17.0M of gross profit.
The backlog turned. The share of remaining performance obligations due within twelve months had fallen all year, from 9.0% to 8.4% to 6.6%. In Q3 it rose to 10.1% of about $1.3B: roughly $131M due in the next year, against about $79M in June.
The loss was smaller. The loss per Class A share was $0.44, against the -$0.45 consensus and our -$0.48. Stock-based pay ($52.3M) and depreciation ($25.1M) both came in lower, as four satellites entered service only on September 1.
Q4 needs at least $61.4M. AST SpaceMobile kept its 2026 revenue guide of $150M to $200M. With $88.6M booked in nine months, the low end needs $61.4M in Q4 and the $167.2M consensus needs $78.6M. Product revenue and that $79.0M of inventory are the numbers to read first in the Q4 report.
The full comparison: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Q3 2026 Earnings: Our Forecast vs the Results.
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.