Rubrik reports its fiscal third quarter, August to October, in early December. The date is not announced; its last four reports came on Thursdays, so we expect Thursday, December 3. The stock closed at $105.75 on November 6, down 22.2% from $136.00 on October 28.
Most of the quarter is already booked. About 89% of subscription ARR ($1.48B of $1.66B at July 31) is cloud, recognized evenly over the contract, so the ARR a quarter starts with sets most of its subscription revenue.
This guide has less cushion. Strip out the leftover "material rights" revenue and divide subscription revenue by a quarter of the starting ARR, and the last three quarters landed at 103.0%, 100.1% and 102.9%. The gap between each guide and the outcome was 10.6 points in Q4 FY26, 5.9 in Q1 and 6.2 in Q2. The Q3 guide of $429M to $431M leaves only about 2 points if the quarter lands at the three-quarter average.
Why we still expect a beat. At 100.1%, the weakest of the last three quarters, revenue would be $430.4M, exactly in line. At the 102.0% average it is $440.9M: 2.5% above the $430.2M consensus from 26 analysts. Management also raised the annual guide by more than the whole Q2 beat. "We took the guidance up by the full beat in Q2, as well as raised some more," the finance chief said.
The EPS guide has the widest cushion. A $0.08 midpoint needs non-GAAP operating expenses to jump 8.4% from Q2, after 5.5% growth the quarter before. If expenses grow 5.6% and revenue lands at our forecast, EPS is $0.16 against the $0.082 consensus.
Net new ARR is the real test. Rubrik added $103.0M in Q1 and $95.8M in Q2. The full-year ARR guide of $1,880M to $1,885M leaves $219.1M to $224.1M for the second half, only 4.5% to 6.9% above last year's $209.7M after 24.4% growth in the first half. We forecast $105M in Q3, 11% above last year's $94.4M, and year-end ARR of $1,886.9M, just above the top of the guide.
What to watch: net new ARR against last year's $94.4M, whether hardware resale keeps lifting "other" revenue, and the full-year guide of $1,685M to $1,693M against our $1,721.8M.
The full preview, with the run-rate test for each guide, the Q2-to-Q3 bridge and the margin math, is here: Rubrik (RBRK) Q3 FY27 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
Source: Equibles. Consensus as of November 6; stock price as of November 6.
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