AST SpaceMobile Q3 Preview: The Backlog Due Within A Year Keeps Shrinking

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) reports Q3 2026 results on Monday, November 9, after the close, with the call at 5:00 p.m. ET. The stock closed at $37.15 on November 3, 72% below its $133.09 high of May 28.

The company is still building its network, so today's revenue comes from gateway equipment and U.S. government milestones. The phone service itself has no revenue yet.

Our call: Q3 revenue of $40.0M, 13% below the $46.0M consensus (8 analysts, range $40.0M to $50.0M), and a loss of $0.48 a share against a $0.45 consensus.

Why the revenue line misses

Each 10-Q reports remaining performance obligations, about $1.2B in each of the last three filings. What changed is the share due within twelve months.

That $79M covers July 2026 through June 2027. First-half revenue was $46.3M. So even if every dollar of it landed by December, the company would need about $24.5M from contracts signed after June to reach the $150M low end of its guidance, and about $41.8M to reach the $167.2M consensus.

New orders are possible. A gateway order placed in July can ship in September, and in August the company reported more than $125M of new government awards. But the twelve-month figure fell in the quarter those awards came in, which suggests most of that money is scheduled further out.

Our forecast

Inventory rose to $28.4M at June 30 from $12.0M at the end of 2025. At Q2's product margin that is about $31M of revenue, which is why we assume $28.0M of gateways. We forecast $152.3M for 2026, at the bottom of the $150M to $200M guide. Our upside case, $48.0M for Q3, ships the whole June inventory and books $17.0M of government milestones. It's the only one of our cases above consensus.

Spending and cash

Management guided adjusted operating expenses of $105M to $115M for Q3, against $95.9M in Q2, and capital spending of $350M to $425M. Cash and restricted cash were about $2.7B at June 30, and the company says it had over $3.7B pro forma after July's $1.15B of 1.625% convertible notes.

Positioning

Short interest was 65.9M shares on October 15, 22.0% of the Class A shares and 3.2 days of volume. The stock moved 6.4% on average the session after its last five reports. Director Adriana Cisneros bought 10,822 shares on August 31 at $57.00 to $58.87.

What to watch on the call

The twelve-month share of the backlog, whether the guide holds, satellites in orbit against the target of about 45 by early 2027 (13 at the August report), and when commercial service and its revenue begin.

The model, the scenarios and the sources are in our full AST SpaceMobile preview.

Data: SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, FINRA short interest and analyst consensus, processed by Equibles.