Asia Week Ahead: Rate Decisions In Japan And Singapore, Data On China And Taiwan

Japan and Singapore central banks are set to hold interest rates steady this week as regional inflation stabilizes.

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Monetary policy in both Singapore and Japan is expected to remain unchanged. Markets will also focus on China's PMI and upcoming Politburo meeting and Taiwan's second-quarter GDP data

Asia Research highlights of the week

Bank Indonesia keeps rates on hold, signals greater support for growth

Japan: BoJ to hold rates at 1.0%

We expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% on Friday. With the economic and inflation outlook broadly evolving as expected, there appears to be little urgency for further policy adjustment at this stage.

Singapore: MAS expected to stay on hold

We don’t expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten monetary policy on Monday. This is despite the continued resilience of economic growth and rising risks stemming from higher oil prices. So far, the pickup in core inflation has been gradual, with recent readings consistently surprising the market to the downside. In our view, the measured increase in core inflation provides the central bank with sufficient room to defer any policy tightening until October.

China: PMI and Politburo meeting in focus

China releases its industrial profits data for the first half of the year on Monday. Profits have been on a recovery trend so far this year, buoyed by hi-tech and export-facing industries. With June industrial data coming in stronger than expectations, this positive trend could continue. China also releases its official July PMI data on Friday. We’re looking for the manufacturing PMI to cool slightly to 50.1, and non-manufacturing PMI to slow to 50.0 on the month. The Politburo is expected to hold a meeting to review the economic outlook and set priorities for the remainder of the year.

Taiwan: Double-digit GDP growth expected in 2Q26

Taiwan’s main data release is second-quarter GDP, out on Friday. Given the strength of the monthly data, we believe there's a compelling case for growth to remain in the double-digit range. We’re looking for GDP growth of 12.1% year-on-year, once again driven primarily by net exports, which rose 38.5% YoY to $44.5bn in the second quarter.

Key events in Asia next week

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