Another Deal Day Another Market Rally

By Michael J. Kramer of Mott Capital Management

Founder/CEO at Mott Capital Management, LLC • May 28, 2026 at 8:40 PM EDT

The S&P 500 gained 58 basis points as rumors of a US-Iran deal extension boosted sentiment, pushing the VIX below 16.

It feels like we are stuck on a carousel that just keeps going around and around. For the past two months, we have seen headlines about a deal between the US and Iran to end the fighting. The odd part is that the deal is supposedly meant to extend the two-week ceasefire, which began on April 8 and is now 50 days old, by another 60 days. It is not entirely clear to me why a new deal is needed to do that.

In any event, news that a deal may be coming once again sent the S&P 500 higher by 58 basis points, while the VIX fell below 16. To be honest, it is also starting to interfere with my Treasury settlement calendar work. The index finished about 10 basis points above its average gain of 48 basis points on positive days.

Bitcoin (BTC.X) behaved largely as expected, though it fell about 2% around midday and is currently down roughly 1% on the day. While I do not believe Bitcoin has much intrinsic value, it does appear to provide a useful pulse on liquidity conditions. For that reason alone, it is worth watching.

The highly liquidity-sensitive private equity ETF, PSP, also finished the day lower, adding to the evidence that some of the market’s more liquidity-dependent areas remain under pressure despite the broader market’s gains.

I have nothing else for today. The news cycle has worn me out, and, to be honest, I have a lot of other things I need to finish before month-end.

Disclosure:

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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