Analytical Overview Of The Main Currency Pairs - Wednesday, July 8

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1441

• Prev. Close: 1.1412

• % chg. over the last day: -0.25%

Pressure on the euro persists due to investor concerns about the resilience of the Eurozone economy amid geopolitical instability, although the decline in quotes was limited by strong domestic data. The publication of industrial production statistics in Germany for May became a positive factor for the single currency: the indicator rose by 0.9% m/m (seasonally and calendar‑adjusted), significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations (+0.1%) and marking the best result in the past eight months. Nevertheless, market expectations regarding future ECB actions remain restrained. Market participants estimate the probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike at the upcoming July 23 meeting at only 4%. At the moment, investor attention is focused on comments from ECB officials and the dynamics of inflation expectations, which remain elevated due to the energy crisis triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1403, 1.1371, 1.1359, 1.1330, 1.1279

• Resistance levels: 1.1428, 1.1468, 1.1523, 1.1559

The euro corrected to the support level of 1.1403, slightly expanding the flat zone. Buyers reacted with initiative, opening potential opportunities for long positions. The intraday bias is currently on the buyers’ side, so the focus today is on long trades from 1.1403. Profit targets are 1.1428 or 1.1445. For short trades, evaluate price reaction at 1.1428.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Uptrend

• Sup: 1.1403

• Res: 1.1428

• Note: Long trades are considered from 1.1403, but with confirmation. For short trades, evaluate price reaction at 1.1428.

News feed for: 2026.07.08

• US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3380

• Prev. Close: 1.3359

• % chg. over the last day: -0.15 %

The British pound continues to show resilience, trading slightly below 1.34 USD. The currency holds positions close to multi‑week highs and has reached new yearly peaks against the euro. The main factors behind this dynamic were rising oil prices (exceeding 73 USD per barrel amid tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz) and increased market expectations regarding Bank of England tightening: the probability of rate hikes by year‑end is now estimated at 76%. Regarding monetary policy, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has emphasized commitment to the 2% inflation target in his recent speeches. Although the timeline for achieving this target has shifted, the regulator still rules out the possibility of imminent rate cuts, which continues to support the national currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3338, 1.3310, 1.3270, 1.3228, 1.3209

• Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3413, 1.3440

The British pound continues trading within the 1.3338-1.3390 range. Yesterday, after testing liquidity above 1.3390, the price corrected, opening opportunities to look for long positions near the lower boundary. Under such market conditions, long trades should be sought from the support level of 1.3338, but with confirmation. The profit target is 1.3490. If the price impulsively breaks 1.3338, the decline may accelerate toward 1.3310.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Uptrend

• Sup: 1.3338

• Res: 1.3390

• Note: Long trades are appropriate from 1.3338, but with confirmation. If the price impulsively breaks 1.3338, the decline may accelerate toward 1.3310.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 162.08

• Prev. Close: 162.09

• % chg. over the last day: +0.01%

The Japanese yen fell to 162.5 per dollar, once again approaching its 40‑year lows. Pressure on the currency intensified amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: new US airstrikes on Iran, following attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a sharp rise in energy prices. For Japan, which is critically dependent on imports of Middle Eastern oil, this price spike creates additional inflation risks and worsens the outlook for the national economy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 162.16, 161.80, 161.53, 160.20

• Resistance levels: 162.39, 162.59, 163.00

The Japanese yen is once again testing resistance at 162.39, but this time seller reaction is weak. Such market conditions increase the likelihood of a breakout and further weakening of the yen toward 162.59. For long trades, the best levels to consider are the support at 162.16 or the EMA lines, but with confirmation. An impulsive breakout of 162.16 will trigger yen strengthening toward 161.80.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral

• Sup: 162.16

• Res: 162.39

• Note: For long trades, consider the EMA lines or 162.16, but with confirmation. An impulsive breakout of 162.16 will trigger yen strengthening toward 161.80.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4166

• Prev. Close: 4106

• % chg. over the last day: -1.46%

Gold prices on the global market showed a noticeable decline, dropping during trading to around 4105 USD per ounce. Pressure on the precious metal was driven by the strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields, which reached two‑week highs, reducing gold’s investment appeal as a non‑yielding asset. Investors remain cautious ahead of the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes, while markets estimate the probability of a September rate hike at around 50-60%. This week, Hong Kong officially launched trial operations of its central gold clearing system and intensified efforts to develop trading infrastructure (including the launch of the HAU benchmark), aiming to strengthen its position as a leading regional precious‑metals trading hub. Meanwhile, data from the People’s Bank of China confirmed continued reserve accumulation: as of the end of June 2026, China’s gold reserves reached 75.44 million troy ounces, increasing by 480,000 ounces over the month.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4105, 4030, 3972, 3884

• Resistance levels: 4125, 4164, 4210, 4273, 4323

Gold declined to the support level of 4105, where buyers reacted with initiative. Today, the focus is on the resistance level of 4125. If sellers do not allow the price to consolidate above it, we may see a sell‑off, with the price potentially dropping sharply to 4030. But if buyers manage to impulsively consolidate above 4125, intraday long trades toward 4164 may be considered.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Neutral

• Sup: 4105

• Res: 4125

• Note: Intraday long trades are appropriate after consolidation above 4125 with a target at 4164. If sellers show initiative at 4125, a sell‑off may occur, with the price potentially dropping sharply to 4030.

News feed for: 2026.07.08

• US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)