Equity Indices Remain Under Pressure From Rising Treasury Yields

The US equity markets on Tuesday showed predominantly negative dynamics under pressure from another surge in US Treasury yields. By the end of Monday’s session, the Dow Jones (US30) fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 (US500) declined 0.16%, and the NASDAQ (US100) closed slightly lower at 0.21%. Yields on 10‑year and 30‑year Treasuries resumed their climb toward the highs last seen in 2007 and 2004, respectively, driven by persistently elevated oil and fuel prices as well as concerns surrounding the US fiscal outlook. Inflation risks and hawkish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams – who signaled the possibility of another rate hike before year‑end – prompted investors to sell government bonds and exerted pressure on the banking sector.

Canada’s GDP grew by 0.2% MoM in August 2026, returning to positive momentum after flat growth in July. The expected resumption of economic expansion fully matched market consensus and followed three consecutive months of steady growth during the spring–summer period.

European equity indices ended Tuesday’s session with moderate gains, supported by declining oil prices and easing investor concerns over imminent ECB tightening. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose 0.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) slipped 0.53%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell 0.42%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.45% lower.

Global oil prices fell to $89 per barrel on Tuesday after the US decided to release additional crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and signs of recovering Saudi export flows. The US Department of Energy offered up to 40 million barrels under an exchange program requiring the return of roughly 200 million barrels within a year – about 20% above the borrowed volume. This measure will reduce US emergency reserves to their lowest level since 1982, though Energy Secretary Wright indicated that further SPR interventions are unlikely.

Platinum prices climbed above $1,700 per ounce, attempting a rebound from a two‑month low amid falling oil prices. The correction in crude, driven by signs of partial restoration of Middle Eastern supply routes, eased inflation concerns and slightly reduced expectations of a prolonged global rate‑hike cycle. This provided localized support for non‑yielding precious metals, although the sector remains under pressure from the broader tightening environment.

US natural‑gas prices fell more than 1.5% on Tuesday, settling near $3.05/MMBtu and extending their decline to a third consecutive session. The main pressure factor is NOAA’s weather outlook, which expects near‑normal temperatures across the eastern US for the next two weeks. The absence of temperature anomalies reduces expectations for elevated electricity demand for both cooling and heating, limiting gas‑burn volumes.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 0.60%, China’s FTSE China 50 declined 0.10%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.48%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.34% higher.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan traded near 6.70 per USD, reflecting growing investor confidence in China’s economic stabilization amid strong macroeconomic data and supportive policy measures from Beijing. According to official September 2026 data, China’s composite PMI rose to 50.7, its highest level since December 2025. Both manufacturing (50.1 vs. 49.8 in August) and services (50.2 vs. 49.0) returned firmly to expansion territory. Independent private surveys also confirmed accelerating business activity.

The Australian dollar (AUD) fell below $0.70, hitting a nine‑week low following the release of August inflation data, which came in slightly weaker than expected. Monthly CPI rose 0.4% versus the 0.5% prediction, while annual inflation accelerated to 4.0% from 3.5%, missing expectations of 4.1%. The trimmed‑mean CPI increased 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected), while its annual rate held at 3.6% for a third consecutive month – above the RBA’s 2-3% target range. As a result, the probability of another RBA rate hike in November fell from 36% to 20%, and expectations for the next possible move shifted from February to March.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains near a three‑month low around $0.564, ending September with a decline of more than 4%. The currency’s weakness earlier in the month was driven by a softer‑than‑expected tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), whose rate‑path signals were less hawkish than markets anticipated. Additional pressure came from broad US dollar strength, supported by expectations of continued aggressive Federal Reserve policy.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,670.84 -12.85 (-0.17%)

Dow Jones (US30) 51,349.92 -131.59 (-0.26%)

DAX (DE40) 25,399.21 +24.79 (+0.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,636.71 -48.17 (-0.45%)

USD Index 101.41 +0.22 (+0.21%)

News feed for: 2026.09.30

• Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (LOW)

• Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)

• Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (HIGH)

• China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• China RatingDog Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)

• German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)

• UK FPC Meeting Minutes at 12:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)

• UK FPC Statement at 12:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)

• German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)

• US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

• US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)

• US GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

• US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)