6 Monster Stock Market Predictions For The Week of Nov. 9

S&P 500 (SPY) 

I am highly uncertain what this week will bring, especially after the past week. Last week, we saw a massive collapse in volatility and what appeared to be a massive rotation and short-covering. We know there was short covering involved based on the collapse in volatility, which comes with selling puts and selling volatility. 

I believe we are likely to see a pullback of sorts this week. I do not think we are in the same position that we were in at the end of 2016 with the Trump win. We are in a different period of time with different challenges. The question now will be how Biden chooses to handle the virus, but in truth, we may not see those policies put into place until nearly February. 

We are forming a triangle pattern, and that would suggest that we may see a move lower from here to around 3,275. We will see. 

AMD (AMD)

AMD may still have a head and shoulders pattern that is in the works. The stock would need to rise above $87 before we know if the pattern is dead. The one part that isn’t clear to me is if there has been a real break out in the momentum, or just a false head on the RSI. 

Bank of America (BAC)

Bank of America’s stock has struggled and has been trending lower with an RSI that confirms the downward motion. A big level of support will need to come at around $23.20. However, this stock and sector’s direction is likely to be heavily influenced by yields and the curve. 

Roku (ROKU) 

I will never understand what the market sees in Roku. The stock trades with a higher multiple than Netflix (NFLX) on a price to sales ratio. But Netflix clearly has a vast moat around it, and its competitive threat proved to be over-hyped and never developed.

However, Roku, which has a much bigger competitive threat which everyone seems to ignore, trades with a much higher price to sales multiple. Additionally, Netflix has a subscription model and Roku runs an ad-based model. It will never be clear to me what people see there. Can the stock go higher? Sure, it has the momentum behind it and it has been on a tear all year. How much higher, and how does it end, I don’t know. 

Twitter (TWTR)

After using Twitter to find information over the past several weeks, I wonder what place it will have going forward. The company has clearly decided to have a say in what does and doesn’t get published to its platform, and that, to some degree, bothers me. 

I think what bothers me the most about it is that it could effectively decide at some point it doesn’t want financial content and cut me off its platform. In fact, all of these major social networks can, and that worries me. While I appreciate the dominance from an investing standpoint, one must wonder what it means longer-term.

An increase above $43 sends it back to $46, with a gap to fill much higher. 

AT&T (T) 

I am also beginning to wonder how AT&T and its purchase of Time Warner will fit into this whole equation. Is AT&T a wireless provider, or a company that is now also in a similar arena to Twitter with its ownership in CNN and other news networks?

The stock peaked around the time they announced they would buy Time Warner in 2016, and it has been down ever since, a sign the market has strongly disapproved of the deal and continues not to see the deal bear fruit. 

Lots of things to think about as I try to decide the future direction of my portfolio and how I want to invest going forward.