There’s some interesting changes so far this year compared to 2025.
Cumulative Job Changes Through June 2026
Nonfarm: 552,000
Manufacturing: 18,000
Leisure and Hospitality: -10,000
Professional and Business Services: 135,000
Private Education and Health Care: 346,000
Nonfarm Excluding Private Education and Health Care: 206,000
Cumulative Job Changes 2025 Total
Cumulative Job Changes Through June 2025
Nonfarm: 162,000
Manufacturing: 18,000
Leisure and Hospitality: -25,000
Professional and Business Services: -113,000
Private Education and Health Care: 380,000
Nonfarm Excluding Private Education and Health Care: -218,000
Cumulative Job Changes 2025 Totals
Nonfarm: 116,000
Manufacturing: -113,000
Leisure and Hospitality: 99,000
Professional and Business Services: -160,000
Private Education and Health Care: 682,000
Nonfarm Excluding Private Education and Health Care: -566,000
2026 vs 2025
Healthcare still hot
Huge positive swing in Professional and Business Services (-160,000 full year 2025 to +135,000 through June 2026)
Manufacturing stabilized
The second-half 2025 rebound in Leisure and Hospitality died on the vine
This assumes you believe the numbers, but it’s what we have so far.
The demise of Professional and Business Services in 2025 was related to AI. Did companies get rid of too much staff?
Where we Stand in 2026
2025 was a one-cylinder jobs economy, Private Education and Health Care.
For 2026, add Professional and Business Services to the mix.
The June 2026 combination is 346,000 + 135,000 = 481,000 for the two sectors out of a reported 552,000 total. That’s 87.1 percent of all jobs.
For 2025, nonfarm payrolls excluding Private Education and Health Care lost 566,000 jobs.
So far in 2026, nonfarm payrolls excluding Private Education and Health Care gained 206,000 jobs of which 135,000 were Professional and Business Services.
Question of the Day
Does anyone believe any of this?
Today, the BLS revised employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported.
BLS Comment Today
“The 2026 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data will be published on August 28, 2026. This is the same day that the first-quarter 2026 data from QCEW will be issued.”
“Official establishment survey estimates are not updated based on this preliminary benchmark revision.”
By standard practice, the BLS will leave the published data and charts in a known-to-be-wrong state.
What’s Shaky?
The rebound in Professional and Business Services seems shaky. I expect more AI-related layoffs.
Note that ADP also called out softness in Leisure and Hospitality.
Looking ahead, AI is not taking Leisure and Hospitality. So what is?
The logical answer is people are eating out less.
McDonald’s (MCD) Warns That Consumer ‘Anxiety’ Could Hit Results
On May 7 Bloomberg reported McDonald’s Warns That Consumer ‘Anxiety’ Could Hit Results
After reporting a strong start to the year, the chain cautioned that it expects “meaningful deceleration” in the current quarter due to a run-up in gas prices caused by the war in Iran, as well as comparisons to a successful promotion last year. There’s “heightened anxiety” among consumers, McDonald’s Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski said Thursday on a call with analysts.
These warnings come and go. People keep buying.
But did we hit a brick wall?
A brick wall is going to happen sometime, without warning.
Regardless, we still have a mostly one-sector job growth economy. Nothing about these reports look healthy even if you believe the positive aspects.
Related Posts
July 1, 2026: Manufacturing ISM Up 6 Straight Months, Employment Down 33 Straight Months
Price growth moderated but have input prices have rapidly increased for 21 months.
July 2, 2026: ADP Reported 98,000 New Jobs in June.
Job creation was uneven in June. Financial activities and information were among the gainers, while leisure and hospitality delivered a sixth month of weak hiring.
“The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand. We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries. For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation,” said Dr. Nela Richardson ,Chief Economist, ADP
July 2, 2026: Economy Adds Only 57,000 Jobs in June, Huge Negative Revisions
Employment dropped by 507,000. The unemployment rate fell because the labor force plunged by 720,000.
Leisure and Hospitality is no longer adding jobs according to two reports. That’s a significant change.
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