Very feeble argumentation, such as #Tesla has been profitable for 2 quarters or Tesla is a Silicon Valley startup, so it has" the potential to do things much better than the status quo dictates"
The truest of your statement, is that yes, there is a possibility of a short squeeze, which would be advantageous to shareholders in the short term and would certainly hurt the short side. But it wouldn’t, in any case, invalidate skeptics’ worries about the company, nor would it suddenly improve Tesla’s dire financial situation, nor improve its amazingly unproductive factory.
Your analysis is based on hubris, not facts and certainly not numbers, such as the debt level of Tesla, the losses every quarter, and their implication on Tesla’s potential to invest in a new factory or simply not go broke.
When you mention a number, such as 25 % gross margin, you do not for a moment question it, or compare the way Tesla calculates gross margin vs the rest of the car industry.
You base your projections on nothing, such as “I believe Tesla will be profitable in mid-2019”. Care to share your simulation model?
Elon Musk cannot be trusted. Absolutely. He refuses to rename Autopilot, a misleading brand and false advertising claim. Almost all his financial & production numbers projections end up being wrong. The $TSLA Shareholder's newsletter is a lie vs 10-Q. He already said in 2012 that Tesla would never need to ever raise another funding round, and we know what happened since. He has a board which is composed of friends and family. He had Tesla purchase SolarCity, a great deal for him and his cousins, a horrible deal for Tesla shareholders.
A few facts:
-Tesla is hemorrhaging money on 45+k Model 3;
- Tesla is hemorrhaging senior executives;
- Tesla is losing money at a fast pace;
-Tesla has no superiority in “extensively automated production”, contrary to what you write, against all facts: productions numbers almost always come up short, Musk himself acknowledging too much automation, loss per can, need to move from 5x2 shifts per week to 7x3 shifts per week, and so forth;
- ZEV credit will end within 2 years, which will be a huge competitive advantage for new entrants, unless laws are changed;
- The demand for S and X is low;
- It is strictly impossible for Tesla to begin producing Y & trucks soon.
- Anecdotal evidence, which would need to be checked, is that Tesla is totally overwhelmed by support, can’t sell its customer base spare parts as needed, and even loses service requests. That’s a great way to alienate Tesla supporters or champions in the course of a few years.
- The automobile industry is not a pure tech industry. Yes, Tesla benefits from a first mover advantage. But it’s probably not that significant since an electric car is much simpler to build than a traditional car, since most of the competition has decades of experience building vehicles, and since Tesla has not built a competitive advantage with a superior battery technology.
If #Tesla had time on their side, they could likely come back from this without too much difficulty, but time is not on their side. The company is bleeding cash and keeps missing it's targets for finished cars. Things are looking pretty dire for the company.
That being said, if anyone can pull a magic rabbit out of his hat, it's $TSLA's #ElonMusk.
You offer much food for thought @[Brian Ramsey](user:59104). I hadn't put much though into it, but it is highly suspicous that #Tesla does not collect telemtry data. I suspect they do, but do not make that information publicly known to protect themselves from lawsuits. That being said, I do think $TSLA has some potential.
@[Gary Anderson](user:4798), I don't think #autonomouscars are a scam, it is just that there is a long way to go. But of the companies trying to dominate this space, wouldn't you say that #Tesla is one of the most likely to eventually succeed? I believe it will simply take much longer than they let on. $TSLA
It sounded like #Musk was shocked that the launch even worked. At the very least it boosted confidence in his abilities as well as the likely success of all of his companies. Bullish on #Tesla. $TSLA.
You are long #Tesla due to their Autonomous driving advantage. Let's stick with that since the horrific financials don't seem to bother you.
Tesla collects data from its cars as they are driven and occasionally driving themselves. However, when there has been a crash of a Tesla driving itself, we have never seen the video of the crash. That is because Tesla's cars are not collecting video despite having only "optic sensors". It would require a large bandwidth or decent sized storage capacity for video for Tesla to be collecting useful data from its cars. I am not seeing either of those in the teardown of the Tesla autonomous driving board.
I think it fairly obvious that Tesla cars merely collect telemetry data to record what the driver or car did prior to an accident. That data isn't useful enough to train a car how to drive itself.
While other autonomous car developers are using custom servers and the best boards and chips that #NVidia can design, Tesla is making noises about making their own custom chip from scratch (#Intel isn't able to compete with NVidia or #AMD, but suddenly Tesla can?) or switching to cheaper AMD parts.
Tesla's autonomous driving capability is hype and a willingness to endanger its customers. That ought to make you suspicious about the rest of the company, sadly I doubt that it will.
Autonomous driving Level 4 and 5 is coming in the next two to three years, but Tesla is at the back of the pack and not improving from Level 2.
If they refuse to sell their $TSLA stock, what TSLA stockholders ought to do is protect their investment with long protective puts. And please diversify so that Tesla's auditors declaring a "going concern" won't destroy your retirement portfolio.
I know #Tesla is far from a perfect company, but what would it take for you to be more bullish on $TSLA? As you can tell, I'm a fan of the company, despite its shortcomings.
Tesla: Short Squeeze Of The Century
Very feeble argumentation, such as #Tesla has been profitable for 2 quarters or Tesla is a Silicon Valley startup, so it has" the potential to do things much better than the status quo dictates"
The truest of your statement, is that yes, there is a possibility of a short squeeze, which would be advantageous to shareholders in the short term and would certainly hurt the short side. But it wouldn’t, in any case, invalidate skeptics’ worries about the company, nor would it suddenly improve Tesla’s dire financial situation, nor improve its amazingly unproductive factory.
Your analysis is based on hubris, not facts and certainly not numbers, such as the debt level of Tesla, the losses every quarter, and their implication on Tesla’s potential to invest in a new factory or simply not go broke.
When you mention a number, such as 25 % gross margin, you do not for a moment question it, or compare the way Tesla calculates gross margin vs the rest of the car industry.
You base your projections on nothing, such as “I believe Tesla will be profitable in mid-2019”. Care to share your simulation model?
Elon Musk cannot be trusted. Absolutely. He refuses to rename Autopilot, a misleading brand and false advertising claim. Almost all his financial & production numbers projections end up being wrong. The $TSLA Shareholder's newsletter is a lie vs 10-Q. He already said in 2012 that Tesla would never need to ever raise another funding round, and we know what happened since. He has a board which is composed of friends and family. He had Tesla purchase SolarCity, a great deal for him and his cousins, a horrible deal for Tesla shareholders.
A few facts:
-Tesla is hemorrhaging money on 45+k Model 3;
- Tesla is hemorrhaging senior executives;
- Tesla is losing money at a fast pace;
-Tesla has no superiority in “extensively automated production”, contrary to what you write, against all facts: productions numbers almost always come up short, Musk himself acknowledging too much automation, loss per can, need to move from 5x2 shifts per week to 7x3 shifts per week, and so forth;
- ZEV credit will end within 2 years, which will be a huge competitive advantage for new entrants, unless laws are changed;
- The demand for S and X is low;
- It is strictly impossible for Tesla to begin producing Y & trucks soon.
- Anecdotal evidence, which would need to be checked, is that Tesla is totally overwhelmed by support, can’t sell its customer base spare parts as needed, and even loses service requests. That’s a great way to alienate Tesla supporters or champions in the course of a few years.
- The automobile industry is not a pure tech industry. Yes, Tesla benefits from a first mover advantage. But it’s probably not that significant since an electric car is much simpler to build than a traditional car, since most of the competition has decades of experience building vehicles, and since Tesla has not built a competitive advantage with a superior battery technology.
A Former Tesla Bull Explains Why The Company Could Be Bankrupt Soon
Man, everyone is so down on $TSLA lately. Some of us still have faith in #Tesla.
Tesla Crash Sinks Stock: Shorts Rejoice, Bulls See Opportunity
If #Tesla had time on their side, they could likely come back from this without too much difficulty, but time is not on their side. The company is bleeding cash and keeps missing it's targets for finished cars. Things are looking pretty dire for the company.
That being said, if anyone can pull a magic rabbit out of his hat, it's $TSLA's #ElonMusk.
Tesla Sliding Despite Better Than Expected Quarter As Model 3 Concerns Remain
I suggest you dig deeper into those ER numbers - not as good as you think. Lower margins, delayed payments to creditors. Bearish on $TSLA
Tesla Cash Keeps Burning at $320 a Share
Some truth to that - without all of #Tesla's previous "cash burning," they’d still only be producing a few 1000 roadsters per year. $TSLA
What Jim Chanos Gets Wrong About Tesla
You offer much food for thought @[Brian Ramsey](user:59104). I hadn't put much though into it, but it is highly suspicous that #Tesla does not collect telemtry data. I suspect they do, but do not make that information publicly known to protect themselves from lawsuits. That being said, I do think $TSLA has some potential.
What Jim Chanos Gets Wrong About Tesla
@[Gary Anderson](user:4798), I don't think #autonomouscars are a scam, it is just that there is a long way to go. But of the companies trying to dominate this space, wouldn't you say that #Tesla is one of the most likely to eventually succeed? I believe it will simply take much longer than they let on. $TSLA
An Open Letter To Elon Musk
It sounded like #Musk was shocked that the launch even worked. At the very least it boosted confidence in his abilities as well as the likely success of all of his companies. Bullish on #Tesla. $TSLA.
What Jim Chanos Gets Wrong About Tesla
You are long #Tesla due to their Autonomous driving advantage. Let's stick with that since the horrific financials don't seem to bother you.
Tesla collects data from its cars as they are driven and occasionally driving themselves. However, when there has been a crash of a Tesla driving itself, we have never seen the video of the crash. That is because Tesla's cars are not collecting video despite having only "optic sensors". It would require a large bandwidth or decent sized storage capacity for video for Tesla to be collecting useful data from its cars. I am not seeing either of those in the teardown of the Tesla autonomous driving board.
I think it fairly obvious that Tesla cars merely collect telemetry data to record what the driver or car did prior to an accident. That data isn't useful enough to train a car how to drive itself.
While other autonomous car developers are using custom servers and the best boards and chips that #NVidia can design, Tesla is making noises about making their own custom chip from scratch (#Intel isn't able to compete with NVidia or #AMD, but suddenly Tesla can?) or switching to cheaper AMD parts.
Tesla's autonomous driving capability is hype and a willingness to endanger its customers. That ought to make you suspicious about the rest of the company, sadly I doubt that it will.
Autonomous driving Level 4 and 5 is coming in the next two to three years, but Tesla is at the back of the pack and not improving from Level 2.
If they refuse to sell their $TSLA stock, what TSLA stockholders ought to do is protect their investment with long protective puts. And please diversify so that Tesla's auditors declaring a "going concern" won't destroy your retirement portfolio.
Tesla's New Exec Comp Plan Means It’s Time To Short This Stock
I know #Tesla is far from a perfect company, but what would it take for you to be more bullish on $TSLA? As you can tell, I'm a fan of the company, despite its shortcomings.