Steve Patterson - Comments

Steve Patterson

Financial Advisor
After obtaining a masters' degree from Stanford University in math, I started as a financial advisor helping people in their finances.

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Beware Of The ‘Permanently High Plateau’ Fallacy
6 years ago

Agree! I admire the work of Robert Shiller on the irrational exuberance in the market. Inspired by Benjamin Graham's value investing, he has devised CAPE which is a metric predicting the expected future returns of the market based on the past performance. The current CAPE for the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested is sitting at 33.6 which is almost 2 standard deviation higher than the historical average (https://www.sigmean.com/). There were only two times that the total return CAPE have been higher than the current valuation: July 1929 at 38 and June 1999 at 48. And we all know that what happened after two times...

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