📊 Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Technical Outlook
Gold remains firmly within a well-established ascending channel on the weekly chart, reinforcing the broader bullish trend that has been intact since mid-2023. The recent breakout above the previous consolidation zone signals continued buying pressure and potential for higher highs.
🔍 Market Structure & Trend
✅ The price is trading comfortably within the channel, with consistent higher highs and higher lows — a classic bullish market structure.
✅ The recent breakout above the previous resistance zone (marked by the horizontal black line) indicates strength, but a retest of this level could be necessary before further upside continuation.
✅ Despite some short-term overbought conditions, the overall momentum remains bullish as long as the price stays above the key support zone.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
1. Support Zones:
- $2,850 – $2,870: This is the breakout zone and the most immediate support. A successful retest here would confirm strength and reinforce the bullish bias.
- $2,820: Major support and demand zone within the lower boundary of the channel. A break below this could shift the short-term trend bearish.
2. Resistance Zones:
- $3,050 – $3,080: The next key resistance level, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel. A breakout here could trigger a sharp rally toward higher levels.
- $3,100+: A psychological level and potential extension target if momentum builds.
📈 Trade Setup & Strategy
✅ Bullish Scenario:
- A successful retest of the $2,850 – $2,870 zone could provide a high-probability long setup.
- Entry: Consider long positions near support or after a bullish confirmation (e.g., a bullish engulfing candle or strong bounce).
- Stop-Loss: Below $2,850 or more conservatively below $2,820 (depending on risk tolerance).
- Target 1: $3,050 – $3,080
- Target 2: $3,100+ if momentum holds
❌ Bearish Scenario:
- If gold fails to hold the $2,850 level, a deeper correction toward the lower boundary of the channel near $2,820 could occur.
- A breakdown below $2,820 would invalidate the bullish structure and could trigger a reversal toward $2,750 – $2,700.
⚠️ Confirmation & Risk Management
- Watch for increased buying volume or a bullish candlestick pattern near support to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
- A failed retest or rejection from the upper channel boundary could signal weakening momentum, increasing the likelihood of a correction.
- Monitor the RSI and other momentum indicators — if they turn bearish at resistance, it could signal exhaustion.
📌 Conclusion:
Gold’s bullish trend remains intact within the ascending channel, but a retest of the breakout zone around $2,850 is critical for confirming strength. A successful hold above this level would pave the way toward $3,050+, while failure could lead to a deeper pullback. Stay patient, follow price action closely, and manage risk carefully!
