Indeed multiples are quite high. But if one expects long-run low interest rates, as the market currently does - just look at the 10-year bond yields, then the current valuations make a bit more sense. But speculating about the future macroeconomic picture is very risky.

So as a matter of precaution, it's better to stay away from stocks unless they are undervalued. I think Union Pacific right now is a good bet. Not really a value play in the classic sense. But this is a premium railway company currently experiencing temporary difficulties. Good entry point for serious investors.

I think so far it's mostly about reduced earnings and revenue in dollar terms as a result of the changed FX. Not really crushed factories.

There will be only a correction. The dollar appreciation is a one-off event. Same with the rate hikes by the Fed. There may be a correction but when the dust settles shares will rise again. So keep invested in stocks for the long term. Don't try to play the market.

Thanks. No, I have never written in TalkMarkets. To be honest I write rarely but I should indeed do it more often, especially because I like writing.

Mixing up cause and effect. The article suggest that the fall in oil price caused the 2008 crisis. And look, now the same will happen because oil is dropping again.

This time oil price dropped mainly because the OPEC cartel became dysfunctional and the US increased its production immensely in just the last five years.

As for the financial crisis, it started in the housing market but it caused such disturbance because it resulted into a run on the shadow banks: mihaililiev.wordpress.com/.../how-shadowy-is-the-shadow-of-the-shadow-banks/

Fear mongering that has little to do with the reality. Pure and simple.