Everyone tries it. Use the past to predict the the future...but only in the stock market. We do not believe the history of Rome or Britain predicts the future of the the struggle with ISIL but are very ready to believe 1941 or 1969 tells us how stocks will move. This I have always believed tells us more about the chance nature of the market and its failure to be rational than it does of anything else. Paulsen was right (or lucky) at one extreme not dependent on these charts in the last cycle and so he moves up to being the soothsayer of the era.
One will notice among the noise that this employment prediction was Dead Wrong about 1996 just as Shiller despite his lauded "exuberance" was also 5 years premature and missed a major run. I just point that out to expose the Arbitrariness of how this sort of Voodoo ignores counter factuals as inconvenient. I think the market is stretched in 2015 and has little justification to outpace growth. I also think it has little justification to under pace growth. It is bifurcated between a fast select few and a slow or backwards many. We saw nothing in Paulsen about that. Asset allocation contrary to the article may make more sense in 2016 than 2010 or 12. Why? Very simple....we are playing a game of chance and the cards are now thinner on aces than in 2009. That is all we know. The rest is Voodoo.
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Wall Street's Most Prominent Former Permabull Is Most Worried About Just One Number
Voodoo through charts?
Everyone tries it. Use the past to predict the the future...but only in the stock market. We do not believe the history of Rome or Britain predicts the future of the the struggle with ISIL but are very ready to believe 1941 or 1969 tells us how stocks will move. This I have always believed tells us more about the chance nature of the market and its failure to be rational than it does of anything else. Paulsen was right (or lucky) at one extreme not dependent on these charts in the last cycle and so he moves up to being the soothsayer of the era.
One will notice among the noise that this employment prediction was Dead Wrong about 1996 just as Shiller despite his lauded "exuberance" was also 5 years premature and missed a major run. I just point that out to expose the Arbitrariness of how this sort of Voodoo ignores counter factuals as inconvenient. I think the market is stretched in 2015 and has little justification to outpace growth. I also think it has little justification to under pace growth. It is bifurcated between a fast select few and a slow or backwards many. We saw nothing in Paulsen about that. Asset allocation contrary to the article may make more sense in 2016 than 2010 or 12. Why? Very simple....we are playing a game of chance and the cards are now thinner on aces than in 2009. That is all we know. The rest is Voodoo.
Is Russia Subject To The Economic Confidence Model?
Why is this incoherent piece on the front page of TalkMarkets? I am new to this website and this sort of nonsense suggests a quality problem.