The validity of ECM model was debated here:

armstrongecmscam.blogs...ot.com/.../...-model.html

1. Armstrong said that ECM is accurate down to the day.

2. Armstrong said that 2015.75 ECM was on October 1st 2015.

www.armstrongeconomics.com/.../did-world-war-iii-start-on-the-precise-day-of-the-ecm/

3. Armstrong SAID (& forgot that he said) that 2015.75 ECM was on October 7th.

web.archive.org/.../the-business-cycle-and-the-future/

October 1st is not the same as October 7th, as far as I can tell.