Excellent breakdown of the swing toward a September cut and the PBOC’s quiet yuan defense. With Rachel Reeves’ first Budget due next week and the Beige Book this afternoon, which do you think has the bigger near-term risk of disrupting the current ‘good-news-is-good-news’ narrative: a surprise UK fiscal expansion that reignites gilt yield fears, or a Beige Book that finally shows unmistakable labor-market softening? Or are both already largely priced in at this point?
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