Brian Nichols Blog | Why A Major S&P 500 Collapse Is Nothing To Fear | TalkMarkets

Brian Nichols

CEO, BNL Finance
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Brian Nichols is the Founder and CEO at BNL Finance, a former equity analyst, and author "Taking Charge With Value Investing (McGraw-Hill, 2012)". At BNLFinance.com, Nichols heads the BNL Portfolio where all his past and present trades, and ...more

Why A Major S&P 500 Collapse Is Nothing To Fear

Date: Tuesday, March 28, 2017 7:59 AM EDT

Radio host Colin Cowherd of FS1 often notes that every 6-8 years since World War 2 there is a macro correction that crashes the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY). Thing is, he’s right! It is a fact that most economists realize. Most recently, we could look back to the Dotcom bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008/2009. However, it’s not going to happen this time, not where major S&P 500 losses follow.

On Cowherd’s Saturday podcast, he once more discussed his theory in a conversation with Jason Whitlock that correlated with the media industry, Netflix Inc (Nasdaq: NFLX), and ESPN. It was a very interesting topic indeed.

Fact is that many share Cowherd’s sentiment. They are waiting for the next drop, and much like 2000 and 2009, they realize the drop could come from anywhere at anytime.

Unfortunately, those waiting will keep waiting, and miss the continuation of a truly epic bull market. This “waiting” is built on a false narrative and a failure to realize what’s happening around us.

Yes, Cowherd and the many economists alike are right on the timeframe, but what so many fail to realize is that we are currently living in the equivalent of a recession.

Keep in mind, recessions don’t just happen. There is always an underlying factor that causes equity markets to spiral out of control. In 2000, big companies had been overpaying for domain names. The debt caught up; valuations were inflated; and equity markets like the S&P 500 paid the price. Mainly, it was a collapse caused by technology; the Technology SPDR (ETF) (NYSEARCA: XLK) fell from a peak of nearly $65 to under $12 in less than 30 months.

In 2008, the financial crisis was caused by the housing market, which then bled into every single industry where credit is required, everything. Therefore, market corrections and recessions are always caused by the woes of a single industry that begin a domino effect into other industries and sectors.

The next correction is already here

What people don’t realize is that the collapse in crude oil prices is equivalent to that of tech and financials in their respective industries.

The above chart looks just like house prices and bank stocks during the recession. Much like every other recession or major correction, no one expected what transpired with oil prices.

By the middle of May last year, SandRidge Energy had become the 77th oil & gas company to go bankrupt in a 12-month span, and total defaults had exceeded $50 billion! Even today, there is major concern surrounding the oil & gas industry.

What’s different is that crashing oil prices only hurt the actual oil industry. Lower oil prices also have the following effect.

When gas prices fall, companies are able to ship and trade goods at lower costs. Airlines are able to operate more efficiently. And consumers have more money in their pocket to dine, travel, and shop. In other words, the collapse in oil prices is the one correction of a major industry that does not cause harm outside of its arena. In fact, its demise actually aids in other areas of the economy.

Will oil prices recover? My guess is that oil prices will make a full recovery just like housing after the financial crisis and the Nasdaq after the dotcom bubble burst. Yes, supply remains an issue, but then again, it has been an issue for quite some time. Fact is investors always let equity prices dictate their outlook. With Netflix Inc. trading at all-time highs, no one cares that they are grossly overpaying for content. But when Netflix stock starts to slip, all that debt and those large obligations will take center stage. Mark my words.

With that said, the bottom line is that no major recession or correction is coming anytime soon. The Fed just raised interest rates yet again, and summarized by saying the economy is very strong. With the prospects of cash repatriation and lower corporate taxes ahead, company earnings are going to rise, and then suddenly, P/E ratios won’t look that bad.

Yes, Colin Cowherd and Co are right when they say “equity prices and the S&P 500 come crashing down every 6-8 years”. It’s true! The anomaly just so happens to be that oil prices reflect the continuation of that trend, and unlike times in the past, crashing oil prices is only bad for the industry in which it affects. The bottom line is that crashing oil prices just bought us another 4-5 years. Now that’s something to be happy about.

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Gary Tanashian 8 years ago Contributor's comment

The housing industry did not cause the bleed out to other sectors and hence a correction. The housing market itself was bled into by too much credit being shoved into the system.

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