By Timothy D. Naegele[1]

Some of us have lived through multiple wars, beginning with World War II—albeit we were babies or little kids then—followed by the Korean War, Vietnam, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and miscellaneous conflicts globally.  Some of us served in the American military at the Pentagon, and worked on Capitol Hill; and we have accumulated some experience with respect to how Washington and other global power centers function.[2]  Some have even followed Vladimir Putin's rise to power as a young KGB officer in the DDR, or East Germany, which was one of the most repressive regimes in the former Soviet Union's orbit.[3]

Putin was trained as a killer; and if he has any obsessions, they are to stay alive and stay in power.  And if he is beholden to anyone, it is to Xi Jinping and China's other "masters," whose goal is global domination by the end of this decade.  When Putin dies, Putinism is likely to die with him.  Between now and then, he will wield Russia's military and strategic power like a "chess master."  In a sense, he is acting as China's surrogate by moving against Ukraine, while its leaders sit back and gauge American responses before they move on Taiwan and elsewhere globally.

In another sense, Putin is to China's authoritarian leadership what Italy's Benito Mussolini was to Adolf Hitler: playing "second fiddle" to someone who came very close to conquering much of the world.  Yes, Mussolini was a buffoon in many ways, and he and his mistress were hanged by the Italian people, but many died because of him.  Putin is not Mussolini; and his rise to power has been calculated and brilliant.  But on some level, he realizes that his time will pass, and that China is his future.

Both Putin and China's leaders believe that Joe Biden is "mentally-challenged"—to be kind—and that Kamala Harris is even worse, and standing in the wings waiting for Biden to "croak."[4]  In a sense, now is the opportune time to move on Ukraine, Taiwan and elsewhere, while incompetents run the United States.  Will this window of opportunity close if the Democrats suffer staggering election defeats in November?  Perhaps, but China's goals are long term, while Putin's perspective is much shorter.  

America's crushing defeat and humiliation in Afghanistan sent critical signals to our allies and adversaries globally that the Biden-Harris presidency was pathetically weak, if not doomed.  In Europe, our NATO allies were stunned; and the same has been true of our other alliances around the world.  If they could not trust the United States anymore, why risk confrontations with our enemies, especially China and Russia.[5]  And by hosting the Winter Olympics, China's leadership "bought time" to see how Putin and the United States would respond to a "manufactured crisis" in Ukraine.  This too was brilliant.

If America would not go to war to "save" Ukraine, why would it go to war to save Taiwan from China's grasp?  Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President, has warned Kamala Harris that economic sanctions must be imposed against Russia before any invasion begins, but reportedly he was rebuffed.  Vitali Klitschko, a former professional boxer who is the Mayor of Kyiv—Ukraine's largest city—may become a target of Putin for having railed against Russia's aggression.[6]  After all, Ukraine's former President Viktor Yushchenko was subjected to dioxin poisoning and disfigurement at the behest of Putin's operatives.[7]

And no one should forget that Putin left the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing to launch his aggression against Georgia.  Then, he left the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi and launched his aggression against Crimea and the rest of Ukraine.  Also, the world must never forget that in addition to downing Malaysia Airlines Flight 17—and killing all 283 passengers and 15 crew on board—Putin killed Alexander Litvinenko and countless others.[8]

Russia spans nine time zones and includes 160 ethnic groups that speak an estimated 100 languages.  It is by no means monolithic, and may crumble “overnight.”  Once Putin is gone, Russia may be dismembered—never to rise again—with China taking part (e.g., Siberia, which it covets) and the rest becoming independent states like the former Yugoslavia.  Between now and then, many may die because of Putin, unless he is terminated.

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© 2022, Timothy D. Naegele

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[1]  Timothy D. Naegele was counsel to the United States Senate's Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, and chief of staff to Presidential Medal of Freedom and Congressional Gold Medal recipient and former U.S. Senator Edward W. Brooke (R-Mass).  See, e.g., Timothy D. Naegele Resume-21-8-6  and https://naegeleknol.wordpress.com/accomplishments/  He has an undergraduate degree in economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), as well as two law degrees from the School of Law (Boalt Hall), University of California, Berkeley, and from Georgetown University.  He served as a Captain in the U.S. Army during the Vietnam War, assigned to the Defense Intelligence Agency at the Pentagon, where he received the Joint Service Commendation Medal (see, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commendation_Medal#Joint_Service). Mr. Naegele is an Independent politically; and he is listed in Who's Who in America, Who's Who in American Law, and Who's Who in Finance and Business. He has written extensively over the years (see, e.g., https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/articles/ and https://naegeleknol.wordpress.com/articles/), and studied photography with Ansel Adams.  He can be contacted directly at tdnaegele.associates@gmail.com

[2]  See supra n.1.

[3]  See, e.g., https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2015/11/29/the-death-of-putin-and-russia-the-final-chapter-of-the-cold-war/ ("The Death Of Putin And Russia: The Final Chapter Of The Cold War"); see also https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2022/01/27/ ("Will Putin Seize Ukraine, And If So When?")

[4]  See, e.g., https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2020/08/08/biden-is-brain-dead/ (“Biden Is Brain Dead”) and https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2020/08/11/brain-dead-joe-biden-has-picked-willie-browns-ho-as-our-next-president/ (“Brain Dead Joe Biden Has Picked Willie Brown’s Ho As Our Next President”)

[5]  See, e.g., https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2021/08/15/the-tragedy-of-afghanistan/ ("The Tragedy Of Afghanistan")

[6]  See, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitali_Klitschko ("Vitali Klitschko")

[7]  See, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yushchenko#TCDD_poisoning

[8]  See supra n.3.