Robert A. Weigand Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Brenneman Professor of Business Strategy at Washburn University

Robert A. Weigand, Ph.D., is Professor of Finance and Brenneman Professor of Business Strategy at Washburn University in Topeka, Kansas, where he teaches Financial Management and more

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Why The US Fed Has To Keep Tightening Even Though The Most Reliable Recession Indicator Is Flashing “Game On”
Modern macroeconomics has a few theories worth paying attention to. One of these is driving central bank behavior right now which matters because, in the long run, continued tightening of monetary policy is in all of our best interests.
U.S. Stocks Returns: First 22 Months, President Obama Vs. President Trump
In President Obama’s first 22 months in office, large-cap stock returns were 2.8 times larger than under President Trump, and small-cap stock returns were 6.5 times larger.
EC The Good, The Bad, The Bubble And The Downright Crazy
What this era of low interest rates and loose regulatory oversight has given us is distorted markets – and not just in the sense of the stock price/profit disconnect.
Sector Analysis Suggests Investors Are Cautious About The Sustainability Of The "Trump Rally"
Sector performance over the past six months suggests the market’s gains may not be sustainable, as market leadership has been confined mainly to sectors typically associated with a “risk-off” attitude on the part of investors.
TIAA-CREF Warns That Negative Interest Rates Are Coming
This morning I received a message from TIAA-CREF informing me, and all plan participants, to begin taking negative yields into account as we consider our future asset allocations.
The Great Central Bank Permabubble
A considerable amount of time has passed since the financial crisis of 2008 and the “great recession” that followed. March 2016 marks the seventh year since the economy began its long, slow recovery and the current bull market in stocks began.
Leading Indicators Suggest U.S. Economic Activity Approaching Stall Speed
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators have deteriorated significantly over the past year.
The Fed Won’t Raise Rates Until Deflationary Trends Reverse
Corn and cocoa are the only two major agricultural commodities to finish the trailing 12 month period at slightly higher average prices. Oats, wheat and cotton prices declined modestly, and soybeans and coffee are both down over 35% from a year ago.
Sector Analysis Reveals Investors’ Waning Appetite For Risk
Sector activity shows that investors had been positioning themselves for a steep correction since May. Whether or not the selling continues into bear territory or remains confined to a quick correction likely depends on the Fed.
Fact-Checking Riverfront Investment Group’s CIO
Today’s lesson in innumeracy is provided by Michael Jones, CIO of Riverfront Investment Group. Mr. Jones was a guest on CNBC on April 20, 2015.
Deflation Is The Main Reason The Fed Will Raise Rates Later Rather Than Sooner
In a market suffering from numerous unpriced risks, the Fed’s utter cluelessness may be the biggest unpriced risk of all.
Sector Performance Mixed As Stocks Search For A Catalyst
U.S. stocks were in the negative for January, a signal that often predicts how the rest of the year will go. Analyzing the performance of stock market sectors, known as “sector rotation,” can provide additional clues about the market’s next move.
Netflix: Great Company, Overvalued Stock
Although it continues trading like a nineties dot-com darling, NetFlix’s stock remains considerably overvalued vs. any reasonable future growth and profitability assumptions the company may achieve.
EC Eurozone Banks Ready To Implode, Part 2: In Search Of Solvency
With U.S. banks’ average profit margins back to their pre-crisis levels and ROE consistently higher, one might expect banks to pay taxes at the same rate as they did pre-crisis — but that would occur only in a world that made sense.
EC Eurozone Banks Ready To Implode, Part 1: It’s Bad, You Know
U.S. banks earned significantly larger stock returns than their European counterparts in the post-crisis years, accompanied by higher rates of revenue and loan growth, lower risk, and superior profitability and loan quality.
Economic Outlook 2015, Part 3: The Leading Indicators Suggest Growth Will Continue Into 2015
This is Part 3 of my 3-part review of The Conference Board’s economic indicators. 2014 has been the best year for economic growth since the financial crisis, although sluggish wage growth and rising consumer debt (aided by artificially low interest rates) presented some concerns.
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