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Paul Hodges is a trusted advisor to many of the world's leading investors and companies.  He publishes The pH Report, which focuses on the impact of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus on world markets. Paul serves as a ... more

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No Deal Brexit Remains UK Law Unless MPs Reverse Their Previous Votes
Investors are guilty of wishful thinking if they imagine that No Deal Brexit can't happen. It is actually now UK law after last week's defeat of the Withdrawal Agreement. And it will be very hard to reverse this with only 68 days left till Brexit
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CEOs Need New Business Models Amid Downturn
Many indicators are now pointing towards a global downturn in the economy, along with paradigm shifts in demand patterns. Investors need to ensure CEOs focus on building resilient business models to survive and prosper in this New Normal world
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Stock Markets Risk Wile E. Coyote Fall Despite Powell’s Rush To Support The S&P 500
How can companies and investors avoid losing money as the global economy goes into a China-led recession? That’s the key question as we enter 2019. We have reached a fork in the road.
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Global Smartphone Recession Confirms Consumer Downturn - The Post That Apple Ignored
It's important to recognize that China's downturn is not a "surprise". It's rather that Apple's management and many investors didn't want to recognize what was happening.
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Chart Of The Year – China’s Shadow Banking Collapse Means Deflation May Be Round The Corner
China's post-2008 shadow bank lending helped destroy price discovery in global markets. Its collapse means today's asset bubbles in shares, houses, art, fine wine etc will be under pressure in 2019 as supply/demand balances regain their key role.
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BASF’s Second Profit Warning Highlights Scale Of Downturn
New Year promises of "synchronised global recovery" have proved worthless, once again. Friday's second profit warning from BASF confirmed the scale of the downturn in key consumer markets and the impact of China's slowdown and Trump's trade wars
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Latest Comments
The Global Economy’s Best Leading Indicator Forecasts A Downturn
2 years ago

The link above for the IMF data seems to have broken, so I am adding it here

www.imf.org/.../weoselagr.aspx

Political Risk Rises As Trump Sets Out To Change America’s Relationship With The World
2 years ago

It seems the links to the 2 videos were somehow removed in the editing process, so here they are:

Click here for Kennedy www.new-normal.com/.../...ugural-Address-core.webm

Click here for Reagan www.new-normal.com/.../...tear-down-this-wall.webm

Today’s New Normal World – The Challenge Of The 100-Year Life
2 years ago

Trump unfortunately shares Obama's myopia about the economic impact of America's aging Boomers on the economy. Its much easier for him to suggest everything can be resolved via a trade war with China, just as Obama found it easier to argue that monetary policy was the solution.

1 to 3 of 3 comments

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Latest Posts
An 11th Birthday – And A Look Forward To 2021
In the midst of major uncertainty, its often useful to take a longer-term view
Airbus Warns Of “dawning Reality” There May Be No Brexit Deal
Many investors have ignored the fact that the UK is currently set to leave the EU next March. Now Airbus and BMW have warned they urgently need more detail on what new trading arrangements will apply, and if there will be a Transition Agreement.
Chemical Industry Data Shows Reflation Remains Hope, Not Reality
Hopes for the "great reflation" and return of inflation are likely to be disappointed over the next few months, as China's $150bn/month shadow lending stimulus is cut back to zero
Plastics Demand Is Peaking As Circular Economy Arrives
The world has produced 8.3bn tonnes of plastics since the industry began 60 years ago. Almost all of it is still with us - in the oceans and in landfill. Companies need to develop new business models to tackle this problem.
The Blog’s 10th Birthday
The blog has successfully forecast the subprime crisis, major movements in the oil price and more recently, Trump's success and the Leave result in the UK referendum. Today is its 10th birthday.
G7 Summit Shows Leaders Are Forgetting The Lesson Of The 1930s
G7 leaders spent more time arguing than agreeing in Italy at the weekend. They have forgotten that no single country can resolve today's problems - as JFK said long ago,"United there is little we cannot do, divided there is little we can do"
US Permian’s Shale Oil Surge Highlights OPEC’s Failed Strategy
OPEC and Russia have made a massive mistake in trying to put a $50/bbl floor under oil prices. They have given a window of opportunity to US Permian Basin producers to ramp up huge volumes of low-cost production.
Debt, Demographics Set To Destroy Trump's GDP Growth Dream
President Trump is copying Presidents George W Bush and Obama in hoping stimulus policies will restore US GDP growth levels to 3%. But today's aging population makes this impossible. Instead it will add to the debt mountain their stimulus created .

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