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Paul Hodges is a trusted advisor to many of the world's leading investors and companies.  He publishes The pH Report, which focuses on the impact of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus on world markets. Paul serves as a ... more

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Chart Of The Year – CAPE Index Signals Negative S&P 500 Returns To 2030
History suggests the S&P 500 will likely fall by around 2/3rds over the next decade to 2030, reversing the gains since 2009. Over-hyped stocks like Tesla will be in the eye of the storm – as in the dot-com crash.
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Welcome To The New Normal – A Look Ahead To 2030
Today's economic and social crisis is going to lead to major change - no matter who is in the White House.
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Central Banks Try To 'Print Babies' To Boost Consumption
Supply/demand balances are weakening in oil markets. Our weekly update focuses on the economic impact of the Perennials - who will provide the majority of US/Western and Global population growth over the next decade.
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Pandemic Redraws The Map
Volatility has begun to rise in oil and bond markets, as we expected. China’s upcoming ‘Vision 2035’ seems likely to prove a major game-changer for its economic model over time.
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Market Volatility Threatens As Economic And Political Risks Rise
Low volatility is either a sign that things are going well or of complacency. As we go into Q4, "fear indices" for bonds and stocks remain at low levels.
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The Real Need Is To Get People Back To Work
The Federal Reserve is now the world’s biggest investor. It has bought $4.8tn of bonds and stocks to support the markets. The Swiss National Bank holds 17.5m Apple shares.
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Latest Comments
Reshoring Set To Create Winners And Losers As Advanced Manufacturing Takes Over
7 months ago

Thanks, for the comment Isaac I see reshoring as providing a major opportunity to rethink both design and operation, with the aim of finally moving away from traditional batch processes to adopt digital, continuous and bio-enabled technology to create a safer, greener, faster, cheaper and more flexible

manufacturing footprint. I go into more detail in this analysis internationalechem.com/.../ICB-Jun20.pdf

China’s Lockdown Makes Global Debt Crisis Now Almost Certain
1 year ago

Thanks for the thought. I think it's difficult for all sorts of reasons to simply hand out money on the scale and timescale required.

Your A To Z Guide To The Brexit Trade Negotiations
1 year ago

Agreed. After 3 years, only the "easy part" of leaving has been done. The real hard work of "getting Brexit done" and replacing all the relationships built up over 47 years has yet to begin.

Markets Face Major Paradigm Shifts As Recession Approaches
1 year ago

Gary that's exactly my point. China and Europe are set to dominate the global market. Trucks/vans/public vehicles will be the early adopters in the US now that the total cost of ownership is starting to fall below that of conventional engines. They have set routes each day, and can easily recharge in the depot overnight. Consumers will be much later.

The Global Economy’s Best Leading Indicator Forecasts A Downturn
4 years ago

The link above for the IMF data seems to have broken, so I am adding it here

www.imf.org/.../weoselagr.aspx

Political Risk Rises As Trump Sets Out To Change America’s Relationship With The World
4 years ago

It seems the links to the 2 videos were somehow removed in the editing process, so here they are:

Click here for Kennedy www.new-normal.com/.../...ugural-Address-core.webm

Click here for Reagan www.new-normal.com/.../...tear-down-this-wall.webm

Today’s New Normal World – The Challenge Of The 100-Year Life
4 years ago

Trump unfortunately shares Obama's myopia about the economic impact of America's aging Boomers on the economy. Its much easier for him to suggest everything can be resolved via a trade war with China, just as Obama found it easier to argue that monetary policy was the solution.

1 to 7 of 7 comments

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Latest Posts
“We May Be Opponents, But We Are Not Enemies, We’re All Americans”
Friday was the anniversary of Lincoln’s Presidential win in 1860, and Biden’s speech claiming victory reflected this historical parallel. As his comments in the title of this post remind us, opponents aren’t enemies.
Companies Ignore The Perennials (55+) Generation At Their Peril
Nearly 1/3rd of the US population is in the 55+ cohort. Yet companies and investors, like the Federal Reserve, have failed to junk their out-of-date models and still plan by looking into the rear-view mirror at how things used to be.
Most Businesses Were Nowhere Near Ready For Brexit Last Friday
As the Duke of Wellington said in another context, "it was a damn close-run thing". Without the efforts of backbench MPs and the EU, the UK would have crashed out of the EU with no trade deals on Friday night. And the risk has only been postponed
An 11th Birthday – And A Look Forward To 2021
In the midst of major uncertainty, its often useful to take a longer-term view
Airbus Warns Of “dawning Reality” There May Be No Brexit Deal
Many investors have ignored the fact that the UK is currently set to leave the EU next March. Now Airbus and BMW have warned they urgently need more detail on what new trading arrangements will apply, and if there will be a Transition Agreement.
Chemical Industry Data Shows Reflation Remains Hope, Not Reality
Hopes for the "great reflation" and return of inflation are likely to be disappointed over the next few months, as China's $150bn/month shadow lending stimulus is cut back to zero
Plastics Demand Is Peaking As Circular Economy Arrives
The world has produced 8.3bn tonnes of plastics since the industry began 60 years ago. Almost all of it is still with us - in the oceans and in landfill. Companies need to develop new business models to tackle this problem.
The Blog’s 10th Birthday
The blog has successfully forecast the subprime crisis, major movements in the oil price and more recently, Trump's success and the Leave result in the UK referendum. Today is its 10th birthday.

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