I am literally going through 1000's of companies each quarter looking for things to buy and these days it is like trying to find a needle in an acre of haystacks. To show you how overvalued some stocks are here are just a few examples;
Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. |
(ll) |
Current Price |
$ 86.00 |
BETA |
1.36 |
PRICE TO FREE CASH FLOW |
98.33 |
PRICE TO OWNER EARNINGS |
22.30 |
PRICE TO LEVERED FREE CASH FLOW |
90.20 |
PRICE TO FINAL FREE CASH FLOW |
45.39 |
Fully valued price per share |
$ 47.37 |
buy price |
$ 31.55 |
FROIC |
35% |
CAPFLOW |
54% |
52 week high |
$ 119.98 |
52 week low |
$ 71.63 |
GOODWILL AS A PERCENTAGE OF ASSETS |
2% |
The stock was $119.98 at its high and had fallen to $86 as of yesterday for a -28.32% loss. Then this morning the company reported earnings and missed already lowered earnings estimates by -21% and already lowered revenue estimates by -6%. So as a result we are looking at this in the pre-market.
Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. (LL)
Pre-Market : 79.00 -7.00 (-8.14%) 7:53AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
So the stock, which was down -28.32% from its high is now going to open down another -8.14%.
But if you don't do your own research and rely on others, you see stuff like this floating around as of April 28th.
Lumber Liquidators Holdings (NYSE:LL) was upgraded by equities research analysts at Ned Davis Research from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note issued to investors on Monday,Stock Ratings Network.com reports.
A number of other firms have also recently commented on LL. Analysts at Longbow Research upgraded shares of Lumber Liquidators Holdings from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note on Wednesday, April 23rd. They now have a $110.00 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Wedbush downgraded shares of Lumber Liquidators Holdings from an “outperform” rating to a “neutral” rating in a research note on Thursday, March 6th. They now have a $105.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $125.00. Finally, analysts at Jefferies Group reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Lumber Liquidators Holdings in a research note on Thursday, February 20th. They now have a $124.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $131.00. Four analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and six have assigned a buy rating to the stock.
So four analysts had it as a hold and and six had a buy rating. I am the only one I could find that had a strong sell rating as you can see from my analysis above that the stock needs to fall another -60% before it hits my buy price.
I hate to say it but there are 100's of examples like this out there are still extremely overvalued like
Twitter, Inc. |
(twtr) |
Current Price |
$ 42.62 |
BETA |
N/A |
PRICE TO FREE CASH FLOW |
5,777.48 |
PRICE TO OWNER EARNINGS |
60.72 |
PRICE TO LEVERED FREE CASH FLOW |
210.14 |
PRICE TO FINAL FREE CASH FLOW |
140.19 |
Fully valued price per share |
$ 7.60 |
buy price |
$ 5.06 |
FROIC |
5% |
CAPFLOW |
0% |
52 week high |
$ 74.73 |
52 week low |
$ 38.80 |
GOODWILL AS A PERCENTAGE OF ASSETS |
11% |
Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)
Pre-Market : $37.31 $-5.31 (-12.46%) 8:06AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
So as you can see Twitter is down now -50% from its high and below its 52 week low and it still needs to fall another -86.43% before I would buy it.
It’s not that I don't want to own stocks, but I can't find anything of value to buy and that is the same thing that happened to me in 2000 and 2008 prior to the crashes that soon followed.
Investors are investing 100% just based on the story and are not looking at the numbers. You should only invest in companies where the story is great with numbers that are just as great as we see with Verizon.
Verizon Communications Inc. |
(vz) |
Current Price |
$ 46.77 |
BETA |
0.03 |
PRICE TO FREE CASH FLOW |
6.21 |
PRICE TO OWNER EARNINGS |
6.40 |
PRICE TO LEVERED FREE CASH FLOW |
8.97 |
PRICE TO FINAL FREE CASH FLOW |
7.00 |
Fully valued price per share |
$ 167.09 |
buy price |
$ 111.28 |
FROIC |
16% |
CAPFLOW |
44% |
52 week high |
$ 54.31 |
52 week low |
$ 45.08 |
GOODWILL AS A PERCENTAGE OF ASSETS |
9% |
CLASS DISMISSED