Michael Ashton Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Inflation Products and Markets Expert

Michael Ashton is Managing Principal at Enduring Investments LLC, a specialty consulting and investment management boutique that offers focused inflation-market expertise. He may be more

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Post-CPI Analysis - November 2019
Another CPI day dawns bright and cold. But will inflation get heated up again, with a fourth 0.3% print on core, out of five? Or stay cold like last month’s +0.13% on core?
EC A Generous Fed Isn’t Really The Good News It Sounds Like
People give the Fed much more credit for its ability to squelch inflation than it deserves.
Be Quiet, Let The Man Stop Speaking
The Fed has now embarked on a new easing program, as “insurance” and “risk management” against a future slowdown.
How Not To Do Income-Disparity Statistics
Some statistics, though, because they are widely distributed or widely re-distributed and have dramatic implications and are associated with a draconian prescription for action, deserve special scrutiny.
Tariffs And Subsidies ... On Money
The only way that tariffs, and interest rate manipulations, have a chance of being neutral to positive is if they are imposed as a temporary rebalancing (or negotiating) measure and then quickly removed.
What "Transitory Factors" Might Tell Us About Inflation
There is a lot of buzz around inflation these days. Some people are explaining why we shouldn‘t worry and some people why we should, but regardless – it’s a topic of conversation for the first time in ages.
What If 'Excess Reserves' Aren’t Really Excess?
Historically, the quantity of reserves was managed so that banks had enough to support lending to the degree which the Fed wanted.
The Downside Of Balancing US-China Trade
The reality is that it is really hard to make a trade deficit go away.
Post-CPI Analysis - Friday, Jan. 11
Today’s CPI number is an acceptable one for the Fed. Right on the screws, showing no unanticipated accelerations. But also, no decelerations.
What’s Bad About The Fed Put… And Does Powell Have One?
The idea that the Fed is effectively underwriting the level of financial markets is one that originated with Greenspan and which has done enormous damage to markets since the notion first appeared in the late 1990s.
Spinning Economic Stories
As economists, we do two sorts of things. We do quantitative work, and we tell stories.
Ride ’em Cowboy
The stock market is going down for sensible reasons – which is a major change from when stocks were going up, for nonsensical reasons.
Update And Summary On Housing Inflation
It’s worth turning for a bit to look at the housing market. Shelter is a large part of what consumers spend money on, and therefore a large part of the CPI.
EC The Neatest Idea Ever For Reducing The Fed’s Balance Sheet
It is currently not possible to directly access any inflation index other than headline inflation (in any country that has inflation-linked bonds, aka ILBs).
Inflation-Related Impressions From Recent Events
In early August Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare reported the largest nominal wage increase in 1997. This month there was a correction, but the trend does appear firmly upward.
Post-CPI Analysis - Friday, August 10
Measured inflation should continue to accelerate for the balance of 2018 and make the Fed’s obsession with core PCE increasingly indefensible.
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