James Hamilton Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Professor of Economics at the University of California
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of California

James D. Hamilton has been a professor in the Economics Department at the University of California at San Diego since 1992. He served as department chair from 1999-2002, and has also taught at Harvard University and the University of Virginia. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the University ... more

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Is This A Recession?
No recession so far, but plenty to worry about.
Miscalculating Potential GDP
As GDP is below potential, more stimulus may help lower unemployment with little cost in terms of inflation.
Why Did U.S. Real GDP Fall?
Not that there aren't plenty of storm clouds to be concerned about, but it would be a mistake to conclude that these concerns have already led to the start of a recession in the U.S..
Oil Sanctions And Recession
After a wild ride up to $130 a barrel, the price of oil has come back down to its level from before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Oil Prices And Inflation
The price of oil has doubled from its value a year ago and could increase much more if there are significant reductions in the quantity of Russian oil that reaches world refineries. Today I focus on the implications for inflation.
GDP Growth: Is This As Good As It Gets?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in the third quarter.
The Economic Recovery Continues
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter. That’s well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019.
Economy Looks Strong
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.4% annual rate in the first quarter.
Flash-Mob Finance
The mechanics are basically those of a chain letter. The original buyers may make some handsome profits, but only if they sell in time.
Record-Breaking Increase In GDP
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter.
Record-Breaking Drop In GDP
The drop was across the board in terms of the traditional components of GDP. Consumption spending was the single biggest factor in the drop.
Interpreting The Unemployment Numbers
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that 2.5 million more Americans were working in May than in April.
Economy In A Nose Dive
The 2020:Q1 GDP numbers are very bad. The Q2 numbers could be an order of magnitude worse.
Negative Oil Prices
First negative interest rates, and now negative oil prices. Is the world coming to an end?
Coping With The COVID-19 Economic Shock
Every recession is different. The recession of 2020 will not be an exception to that rule.
Steady Growth Continues
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019. That’s slightly below the 2.3% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3.
1 to 16 of 143 Posts
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