James Hamilton Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Professor of Economics at the University of California
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of California

James D. Hamilton has been a professor in the Economics Department at the University of California at San Diego since 1992. He served as department chair from 1999-2002, and has also taught at Harvard University and the University of Virginia. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the University ... more

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Interpreting The Unemployment Numbers
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that 2.5 million more Americans were working in May than in April.
Economy In A Nose Dive
The 2020:Q1 GDP numbers are very bad. The Q2 numbers could be an order of magnitude worse.
Negative Oil Prices
First negative interest rates, and now negative oil prices. Is the world coming to an end?
Coping With The COVID-19 Economic Shock
Every recession is different. The recession of 2020 will not be an exception to that rule.
Steady Growth Continues
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019. That’s slightly below the 2.3% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3.
The Return Of The Fed’s Balance Sheet Policies
The Federal Reserve has increased the size of its balance sheet by a third of a trillion dollars over the last 15 weeks, returning to tools that a short while ago we thought it had abandoned.
Growing A Little More Slowly
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.9% annual rate in the third quarter of 2019.
Economy Still Growing, But…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter of 2019. That’s pretty near the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3.
Libra: Economics Of Facebook’s Cryptocurrency
If the Libra becomes successful, it could undermine the ability of governments to force negative interest rates– the Libra could start to look like a more attractive money than euros.
Yield Curve Inversion
The gap between long-term and short-term interest rates has narrowed sharply over the last year and is now dipping into negative territory. Historically that’s often been a signal that slower economic growth or even an economic recession ahead.
U.S. Economy Keeps Growing - Friday, April 26
The U.S. economic expansion has now been under way for 9 and 3/4 years, one quarter shy of the longest expansion on record (1991:Q2-2001:Q1).
Measuring Unemployment And Labor-Force Participation
The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate and labor-force participation rate are calculated contain numerous inconsistencies– if one of the numbers economists use is correct, another must be wrong.
The Long Expansion Continues
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. That’s below the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years.
Factors In Unemployment Dynamics
Why did unemployment remain so high for so long, and what factors contributed to the recent lows?
Perspective On The Stock Market
Some people are getting a little spooked by recent stock market movements.
Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks
What are the effects on the economy when the Fed raises interest rates?
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