James Hamilton Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Professor of Economics at the University of California
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of California

James D. Hamilton has been a professor in the Economics Department at the University of California at San Diego since 1992. He served as department chair from 1999-2002, and has also taught at Harvard University and the University of Virginia. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the University ... more

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Latest Posts
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Economy Still Growing, But…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter of 2019. That’s pretty near the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3.
Libra: Economics Of Facebook’s Cryptocurrency
If the Libra becomes successful, it could undermine the ability of governments to force negative interest rates– the Libra could start to look like a more attractive money than euros.
Yield Curve Inversion
The gap between long-term and short-term interest rates has narrowed sharply over the last year and is now dipping into negative territory. Historically that’s often been a signal that slower economic growth or even an economic recession ahead.
U.S. Economy Keeps Growing - Friday, April 26
The U.S. economic expansion has now been under way for 9 and 3/4 years, one quarter shy of the longest expansion on record (1991:Q2-2001:Q1).
Measuring Unemployment And Labor-Force Participation
The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate and labor-force participation rate are calculated contain numerous inconsistencies– if one of the numbers economists use is correct, another must be wrong.
The Long Expansion Continues
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. That’s below the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years.
Factors In Unemployment Dynamics
Why did unemployment remain so high for so long, and what factors contributed to the recent lows?
Perspective On The Stock Market
Some people are getting a little spooked by recent stock market movements.
Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks
What are the effects on the economy when the Fed raises interest rates?
Strong GDP Growth, Weak Fundamentals
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s the second quarter in a row that the number has come in above the 3.1% average.
International Macroeconomics In The Wake Of The Global Financial Crisis
A decade after the eruption of the Global Financial Crisis, the world economy has returned to a more sustained pace of expansion. Yet major challenges still remain, as the engines of long-run growth have still not recouped their pre-crisis power.
Measuring Global Economic Activity
Measuring the level of global economic activity is of key interest. But the measures we have on variables like industrial production don’t cover all countries and are only available with a significant lag.
Great Second-Quarter GDP Report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter.
Worries About The Yield Curve
Is the flattening yield curve is a warning of impending weak growth or even a recession? My answer is not yet. Here’s why.
Is The Economy Overheating?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that the unemployment rate was down to 3.9% in April. That’s nearly as low as it’s been any time in the last half century. Does that mean the U.S. economy faces some problems ahead?
Comparative Performance Of The UK Economy
There was no recession after Brexit. But a slowdown looks like it’s here now…
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