Edward Harrison | TalkMarkets | Page 7
General Partner, Global Macro Advisors
Contributor's Links: Credit Writedowns
Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial ...more

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The Latest Poor Numbers Coming Out Of The Auto Sector
US auto sales have been down persistently on a year-over-year basis during the past several months. March was no different, according to figures released today.
Quick Thought On How Jobless Claims Matter
There is the view that the eligibility for jobless claims benefits have changed such that jobless claims numbers are lower now than they have been in decades past.
Was It Right To Be On Recession Watch In 2016?
The way the economy performed in 2016 – moving decidedly down away from the 2% growth path to 1.2% annualized growth in Q2 but then re-accelerating – vindicates that view.
The US Economy Is Doing Ok Right Now
The economy is doing just fine right now. There are no real indications that growth is about to change dramatically. Having said that, there have been concerns about slowing credit growth.
Brexit Is More Important Politically Than It Is Economically
Today’s news coverage is non-stop Brexit. And this is a big event. But it is the political implications which matter; the economic impact will be more muted.
Subprime Auto Delinquency Rate At Highest Level Since Financial Crisis
We are seeing prices decline in the auto sector. And more recently, we saw Ally Financial warn on profits too. That’s a big red flag.
You Should Be Concerned About Falling Car Prices And Ally’s Profit Warning
Autos have not seen a big hiccup. If this market’s price hiccup is accompanied by a broader slowing in consumer spending, that is going to definitely translate into higher loan losses. We’re not there yet. But this is the first sign.
Will Brexit’s Trigger, Now Set For 29 March, Mean Recession?
British Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger her country’s exit from the EU on 29 March, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister has confirmed.
How Jobless Claims Tick Up Before A Recession Hits
This past week’s figure was 241,000, down from an unrevised 243,000 the week prior. That brings the 4-week average up to 237,250, just a hair above last week’s 4 decade low.
The Fed Will Continue To Raises Rates, Even Amid Uneven Economic Data
Today the Federal Reserve raised the base US Fed Funds interest rate a quarter percentage point to the range between 0.75% and 1.00%.
The Shale Oil Bubble
Was the shale oil capital expenditure explosion simply a bubble? What trendline does this chart follow going forward and what does it mean for price?
More On The Oil Oversupply And OPEC’s Lost Swing Production Dominance
At current prices, there is a glut of oil production, particularly in the US, where shale producers are ramping up rig counts. One must question whether the Saudis can control this and whether the OPEC agreement with Russia will last.
US Credit Growth Is Decelerating Across A Variety Of Areas
This week all eyes will be on the Fed because of its expected interest rate hike and the messaging that will accompany its policy decision.
US Jobs Numbers Come In High Enough To Prompt Fed Rate Hike
The BLS released the latest employment numbers for the US, the last piece of major economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on whether to raise interest rates.
Tomorrow’s Jobs Number Would Have To Be Terrible To Prevent A Fed Hike
Tomorrow, the BLS will release the February jobs numbers for the US economy. This is the last piece of major US economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on US monetary policy.
Oil Drops Below $50 A Barrel On Oversupply
For the first time in 3 months, WTI has dropped below $50 a barrel after crude inventories were shown rising by 8.2 million barrels last week.
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