David Merkel Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Founder, Aleph Blog
Contributor's Links: The Aleph Blog Aleph Investments, LLC

David J. Merkel, CFA — 2010-present, I run my own equity asset management shop, called Aleph Investments.  I manage separately managed stock and bond accounts for upper middle class individuals and small institutions.  My minimum is $100,000.

From 2008-2010, I was ... more

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What Caused The Financial Crisis?
Sad but true — the financial crisis was all about bad monetary policy, a housing bubble, and poor bank risk management.
EC Thoughts On Bank Debt
Underwriters of the loans have become less choosy, and as such have allowed loans to be made with weak covenants. As a result, more loans have been made, increasing their size versus bonds at junk-rated corporations.
Why I Watch The Thirty
The Thirty is a proxy for the cost of capital. It’s long enough that it is a leap of faith that you will be paid back.
Notes On The Fed Announcements
There is PCE Inflation. Estimates by the Fed Governors are rising, and in 2019 and 2020 they exceed 2%. In the long run, the view of the Fed Governors is that they can achieve 2% PCE inflation.
Just Don’t Invert The Yield Curve
Jerome Powell is not an economist, and as such, has the potential to try to remake the way the Fed does monetary policy
Why I Like Foreign Small Cap ETFs
The US market is high, and I am leaning against that in countries where valuations are lower, and growth prospects are on average better.
Monitor Financial Accounts Regularly
Fewer laws protect you now. In some ways, the laws are more virtual than real, and only apply to real situations and not virtual ones.
The Rules, Part LXIV
Markets are not supposed to go up so steadily, which means something weird was fueling the move.
Nasdaq Composite Hits An Inflation-Adjusted High
What do you do if you are looking for ideas that could be good, but not as much in the spotlight as the companies that make up the bulk of the Nasdaq Composite?
On The Migration Of Stock
When shares are sold, they don’t just disappear. Someone buys them.
Since 1950, The S&P 500 In 2017 Ranks First, Fourth, Tenth Or Twenty-third?
A month is around 21 trading days. There is some variation around that, but on average, years tend to have 252 trading days.
On Finding A Job In Finance
It’s a little crowded in finance. That is partially because it attracts a lot of people who think it will be easy money.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2017 Update
When a market is at high valuations corrections can’t be predicted as to time of occurrence, but when the retreat happens, it will be calamitous, and not orderly.
The Crisis Lending Fund
Who wouldn’t want a fund that made additional money during a crisis, and was safe the rest of the time as well?
Short-Term Rational, But Intermediate-Term Irrational
The market goes down double-speed. Just because the 10-year returns don’t lose much, doesn’t mean that there might not be better opportunities 3-5 years out, when the market might offer returns of 6%/year or higher.
EC The Little Market That Could
So what do you think of the market? Why are both actual and implied volatility so low? Why are the moves so small, but predominantly up?
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