David Merkel Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Founder, Aleph Blog
Contributor's Links: The Aleph Blog Aleph Investments, LLC

David J. Merkel, CFA — 2010-present, I run my own equity asset management shop, called Aleph Investments.  I manage separately managed stock and bond accounts for upper middle class individuals and small institutions.  My minimum is $100,000.

From 2008-2010, I was ... more


Latest Posts
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Separate Processes: The Decoupling Of Inflation And Interest Rates
All of the relationships of the present to the future are out of whack.
An Estimate Of The Future
In some ways, the Federal Reserve is the whipping boy of Congress. Congress can’t decide on anything significant, so the Fed fills in the blanks, and keeps things moving, even if it creates humongous asset bubbles in the process.
Breaking Up Is Hard To Do
Over the years, I have suggested that two firms should break up on a number of occasions: AIG & GE. Both are now in the process of completing their breakups.
China: Unforced Errors
Ready for a cold winter? Much of the world is not. Many places have discouraged using hydrocarbons to produce power, ostensibly for environmental goals, whether those are valid or not.
The Possibility Of The Tail Wagging The Dog
For the last nine years, I have thought that the move away from LIBOR could be a case of “The cure is worse than the disease.” I think we may come to regret the transition from LIBOR to SOFR.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, June 2021 Update
This market is on borrowed time. The only comparable period for this market is from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2000 — the dot-com bubble, which was another period of speculation fueled by loose monetary policy.
The Best Simple Measure For Evaluating Credit Risk Of Publicly Traded Firms For A Stock Investor
I was looking at conditions in the shipping industry today, and I thought back on a stock that I used to own — Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited. I think I sold it in 2007 or so.
Touching The Sky
No one wants to forecast declining future revenue.
Is Liquidity Evaporating? (What A Gas, Man…)
The Fed is tightening as they reduce QE, and begin raising the Fed Funds rate in 2022.
Annuities, Once More, With Feeling
Annuities are typically an expensive way to get returns. Typically, the all-in expenses of annuities range from 1.0-2.5%/year. As such returns are typically poor.
Against Insurance Groups
There is a saying in the industry “Life Insurance is sold, P&C Insurance is bought.” They are different markets, and there is no reason for shareholders to own a company that does both. But some companies diversify. Who does that benefit?
Pay Down Debt Or Invest?
One question that many ask is “Should I invest or pay down debt?” At present, I think that if someone has debts with interest rates higher than 3.4%/year, it makes sense to pay down debt rather than invest more.
Estimating Future Stock Returns - Quarterly Update
This is an ugly situation. Pare back risk positions. Focus on undervalued companies in industries that will not go out of fashion.
Lack Of Slack, Redux
Economics is a lot more complex than it seems for academics sitting in their chairs with their toy models.
Lack Of Slack
The economy is meant to have small amounts of stimulative government influence, not large amounts.
EC Lose Less
You do not hold bonds to make money – you use them to lose less money than you will by investing in broad market equities. They are dry powder for when the bear market comes.
1 to 16 of 388 Posts
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