Director of Research at Pension Partners

Charles Bilello, winner of the 2014 Charles H. Dow Award and 3rd Place Winner of the 2014 Wagner Award, is the Director of ... more

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Lions And Tigers And Yield Curve Inversions
There is no rule saying a recession has to start immediately after an inversion. The yield curve is a long leading indicator, and in the last 3 cycles, it took between 16 and 31 months after inversion for a recession to start.
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The Great Paradox In Markets
Over the past few weeks, the stock market has moved from an oversold extreme to an overbought extreme, a function of the violent December sell-off followed by the near-vertical rally.
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2018: The Year In Charts
These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2018.
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The Long Pause
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the 9th time this month, bringing the Fed Funds Rate up to a range of 2.25% – 2.50%. The move should have surprised no one, as the bond market was pricing it in for some time.
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What Happens When Stocks Are Extremely Oversold?
For long-term investors, extreme oversold conditions are unquestionably a welcome sign. For short-term traders, the outlook is much less certain.
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Bear Markets And Recessions
It’s official: the Bear Market of 2018. Like many of the previous Bears, it’s been an elevator down, with a 20% decline in just 3 months.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

AGG iShares Trust - iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
EUFN iShares MSCI Europe Financials Sector Index Fund
IWC iShares Russell Microcap Index Fund
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
IWV iShares Russell 3000 Index Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500
TLT iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund
XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR

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