Charlie Bilello Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Director of Research at Pension Partners

Charles Bilello, winner of the 2014 Charles H. Dow Award and 3rd Place Winner of the 2014 Wagner Award, is the Director of ... more

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Lions And Tigers And Yield Curve Inversions
There is no rule saying a recession has to start immediately after an inversion. The yield curve is a long leading indicator, and in the last 3 cycles, it took between 16 and 31 months after inversion for a recession to start.
The Great Paradox In Markets
Over the past few weeks, the stock market has moved from an oversold extreme to an overbought extreme, a function of the violent December sell-off followed by the near-vertical rally.
2018: The Year In Charts
These are the charts and themes that tell the story of 2018.
The Long Pause
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the 9th time this month, bringing the Fed Funds Rate up to a range of 2.25% – 2.50%. The move should have surprised no one, as the bond market was pricing it in for some time.
What Happens When Stocks Are Extremely Oversold?
For long-term investors, extreme oversold conditions are unquestionably a welcome sign. For short-term traders, the outlook is much less certain.
Bear Markets And Recessions
It’s official: the Bear Market of 2018. Like many of the previous Bears, it’s been an elevator down, with a 20% decline in just 3 months.
No Place To Hide
In a broadly diversified portfolio, there’s usually something working in any given year. When stocks are down, bonds are typically up. When bonds are down, stocks are typically up. Well, not this year.
Cash Is King
With 2 weeks to go in 2018, cash (short-term treasury bills) is king, outperforming all of the major global equity indices.
Does The S&P Need Higher Oil?
If only Oil prices had not collapsed, some pundits argued, stocks would be hitting new highs. How accurate is this line of thinking?
From Greed To Fear
Volatility has increased as the S&P 500 has experienced a pair of 10% corrections. Bears now outnumber Bulls by 22%, which is in the bottom 5% of all readings. Investors are now fearful.
The 5 Kinds Of Bounces
In a little over a month, the S&P 500 has declined more than 11%, giving back all of its gains on the year.
“Markets In Turmoil” – The Upside Of Downside
Fear is in the air again. Over the past few weeks, the S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000 have given back all of their gains on the year.
Why Are Stocks Going Down?
Is there ever a reason to sell? Certainly, but it should be unemotional, in response to a clearly defined strategy or a change in goals/risk tolerance/holding period.
Are Interest Rates At The Breaking Point?
In markets, we often hear of these precise levels, beyond which everything is said to unravel. The so-called “breaking point”.
The End Of Easy Money
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates last month for the 8th time, bringing the Effective Fed Funds Rate up to 2.18%, its highest level since April 2008.
Does Currency Hedging Reduce Volatility?
One of the main selling points for hedging currency exposure in foreign equities is a reduction in volatility.
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