Burton Rothberg Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Retired Hedge Fund Portfolio Manager
Contributor's Links: The Commodity Strategist

I am a professional trader with over 30 years experience. I have invested in commodities for over thirty years, and have seen several cycles. For the past decade I have mostly been out. Why? Because the prices were too high to go long. I did take some small short positions, but I am always wary ... more

Articles

Latest Posts
1 to 16 of 44 Posts
1 2 3
Uber
The company has off-balance-sheet assets that would be valuable even in a bankruptcy.
Update On Tesla Bonds
The technology of electric cars will continue to advance over the next five years or so. Eventually they will become a stable technology, and costs and marketing will take over. By then Tesla will be hard to unseat.
Cobalt
My last post put Cobalt into a general value area. Now let's look at the supply/demand.
More On Battery Metals
The bull argument was that increased demand from electric cars and grid storage systems would raise demand for all these metals to a new plateau. There is actually some truth to the argument.
The Bust In Battery Metals
When markets go into bubble mode, the bust is often worse than you thought possible. Often, the reason is that during the bubble, speculative stocks of the commodity get built up.
China Deal Off? What Comes Next.
There's still a chance that a deal can be reached. But if not, here's what I see will happen.
US Agriculture: Where Is The Future For Investors?
The US agricultural markets will probably get a big kick up when (if?) a US-China deal is struck. How much depends on the type of deal.
Why Is Inflation So Low?
The world economy is still expanding, and there's not enough investment going into basic materials. One of these days that is going to matter.
Oil Econometrics
Oil is one that has had an increasing trend.
More On Oil
I don't really have a clue where the market is going to go short term, so I stay away from the nearbys.
The Bottom In Oil
Several months ago I mentioned that I thought a major bottom in commodities was about six months away. Well, I think it's partly here now, and I am trading it.
My Macro Trade
The US vs. rest of world trade has finally broken down.
US Vs. The Rest, Part Two
That is to be expected. When there are big macro movements like the kind we are having now, people only think about the trend, not the differences. I still think it will break to the downside. Time will tell.
The US Vs. The Rest Of The World
The latest fall in the US stock market was catalyzed by higher long-term rates. But the valuation mismatch behind it also deserves discussion.
How Is The Trade War Going, And An Underappreciated Risk
It looks like a new, renamed NAFTA has been negotiated. This is no surprise.
How Bad Will The Trade War Get?
There are a fair number of companies in the S&P whose basic business model involves arbitraging the difference between Chinese wages and US prices.
1 to 16 of 44 Posts
1 2 3