Bill Holter Blog | In The News Today - October 12, 2019 | Talkmarkets
Financial Commentator and Former Stockbroker
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Bill Holter writes and is partnered with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration. Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid ... more

In The News Today - October 12, 2019

Date: Saturday, October 12, 2019 6:02 PM EDT

But whatever you do, don’t call it “QE”…because that denotes monetization?

Fed Looked to Advance Discussion of Reserves Amid Repo Turmoil
October 9, 2019

Federal Reserve policy makers, jolted by last month’s disturbances in short-term funding markets, talked at their most recent meeting about the appropriate level of bank reserves the system needs, paving the way for the likely balance-sheet expansion that Chairman Jerome Powell flagged on Tuesday.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 17-18 gathering showed that participants noted the possibility of resuming trend growth of the balance sheet to help stabilize reserves. Policy makers also suggested that the committee should consider the merits of introducing a standing repurchase agreement facility — a new tool to control short-term rates.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

So what do you believe? Market based numbers or the BLS propaganda?

Global Air Freight Decline Now Worst Since 2008 Financial Crisis
October 12, 2019

The escalating trade war between the US and China has accelerated the synchronized global downturn. Global exports continue to collapse, and the global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remains under 50, stuck in contraction territory. All of these ominous signals indicate a global trade recession could be imminent in 2020.

New data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows global air freight volumes, measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs), plunged 3.9% in August YoY, and this was the tenth consecutive month of contraction and the most extended decline since the 2008 financial crisis.

Global trade volumes are quickly slowing, down over 1% from a year ago.

Trade across the world could be at a standstill by 2H20. Air cargo volumes have been hit with tremendous macroeconomic headwinds from a global slowdown that started in late 2017. An intensifying trade war between the US and China has undoubtedly accelerated the global downturn, damaging emerging markets that are highly exposed to exports, like Europe, India, and many countries in Asia.

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