Sanjeev Sharma Blog | Who Will Win In India Election On May 23 2019 | Talkmarkets
Consultant and Author
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Sanjeev Sharma has taught business innovation and finance in business schools in North America and Asia and provides consulting services in New York region. He has over two decades of experience in technology, finance and venture capital roles. 

Sanjeev identified disposable ... more

Who Will Win In India Election On May 23 2019

Date: Wednesday, May 22, 2019 6:44 PM EDT

On Election day 8th Nov  2016 in the United States, I was interviewed on the Ed Tyll Radio Show about who would become the President – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton (link to the interview is at

 

To answer this question, I utilized the same concept of disposable income that I had previously used for predicting the stock market accurately at SeekingAlpha and/or Yahoo Finance.  I explained why Donald Trump has a clear edge, though 95 percent of the US media predicted that Hillary would win.  

Disposable Income methodology:

Disposable income is the amount of money left from wages after spending on basic needs like housing, food, and fuel. This amount makes up most of the spending in a modern economy and a substantial part of a major stock exchange index is based on this discretionary spending. For over 10 years now, I have been predicting the US Stock Market accurately almost a year in advance, based on calculating the expected change in disposable income of the middle class, due to various macroeconomic conditions (SeekingAlpha articles here: https://seekingalpha.com/author/sanjeev-sharma#regular_articles ).

Elections and Disposable income:

People leave their families, friends and loved ones behind and move to other countries just for the sake of higher disposable incomes. The economy of many countries has changed from Capitalism to Communism and then back to Capitalism due to this fundamental desire of people. Governments and Presidents change based on the message they give to people about their programs for better wages.

In elections, usually, those candidates win who give a plan to voters on how their disposable incomes would increase. In the 2000 election in the US, Al Gore was not able to explain what he would do to increase the disposable income of masses, whereas George Bush clearly told that everyone will get a tax reduction. This helped George Bush. In 2008, Barack Obama explained he will help the struggling middle class by attacking the outsourcing of jobs to other countries and that helped him. In 2016 again, as I explained in my radio interview, Donald Trumps’ message to voters was much more clear and loud on how he will help increase their incomes.

India Elections, 2019 and Narendra Modi:

This election is between the ruling BJP led coalition (NDA), the Congress party-led alliance (UPA) and the third front composed of many regional parties.

Prime minister Narendra Modi of BJP has created a brand of strong leadership around him, but he has been accused of poor job growth and corruption in a defense deal. Congress party’s Rahul Gandhi has been branded as an emerging leader but for a long time, had been considered to be a naive young person who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

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