Paolo DePetrillo Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Owner, Econocasts
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My blog, Econocasts, covers structural equation modeling for objective financial forecasts.

I like to remember The Modelers' Hippocratic Oath:

I will remember that I didn't make the world, and it doesn't satisfy my ... more


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Silver Cycle Model Chart - Sunday, March 3
The silver cycle model shows a local maximum for silver prices has been reached as of the beginning of March 2019.
Nasdaq Cycle Model Chart For Friday, Feb. 15
The Nasdaq cycle model is suggesting a local maximum in May 2019 time frame, followed by a drop to 6000 by September 2019.
Silver Cycle Model Chart - Tuesday, Jan. 29
The silver cycle model is suggesting a local maximum in the February/March 2019 time frame.
Gold Cycle Model Chart - Saturday, Jan. 26
There is a hint here that the months-long right phase shift may be on hold.
Nasdaq Cycle Model Chart - Monday, Jan. 21
Equity-based cycle models have less predictive value than their commodity-based versions, this model seems to have captured the low in timing if not in magnitude and is now suggesting a local maximum in the May 2019 time frame.
XOI.X Cycle Model Chart - Sunday, Jan. 13
The XOI.X cycle model appears to have predicted the timing of the local minimum, but not the magnitude, which is common for these cycle models.
Gold Cycle Model Chart - Saturday, Dec. 8
The gold cycle model continues its right phase shift.
XOI.X Cycle Model Chart - Monday, Nov. 26
The model continues to converge, but there is a continuing right phase shift and a wide discrepancy between actual and predicted suggesting lower prices are much less probable.
Nasdaq Cycle Model Chart
I think the effect of the Federal Reserve Bank monetary expansion on the business cycle has rendered predictions based on cycle theory to be somewhat problematic, and that may not be a strong enough statement.
Cycle Model Chart - Monday, Sept. 10
The level of divergence between actual and predicted values for the index exceed those observed on 2008.10.10, which were resolved in the next few weeks according to the prediction.
Gold Cycle Model Chart - Monday, June 25
The right phase shift continues, and I suspect that it may continue for several months.
Silver Cycle Model Chart - Saturday, April 21
The model continues to suggest that the local maximum was reached in late January 2018, and lower prices are highly probable between now and August 2018.
Gold Cycle Model Chart - Sunday, February 18
The right phase shift continues, but gold prices remained above $1300.
Silver Cycle Model Chart
We should expect to see lower silver prices. As can happen with these kinds of models, the local maximum may have been predicted relatively well in time, however, the magnitude was much lower than expected.
XOI.X Cycle Model Chart
The XOI.X cycle model continues to suggest higher levels for the index going forward into the Spring of 2018.
Gold Cycle Model Chart
As it turned out, the rightward phase shift in the gold cycle model continued, and while it looks highly unlikely that the gold price will drop below ~$1300 going into 2018, there is no guarantee that the right phase shift will end soon.
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