Michael Pettis Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Professor at Peking University
Contributor's Links: China Financial Markets

Michael Pettis is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. He has also taught, from 2002 to 2004, at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia ... more

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The Only Five Paths China’s Economy Can Follow - Part II
Aside from the economy’s current path, there are only four other paths China can follow, each with its own requirements and constraints. Part 2 of 2.
EC The Only Five Paths China’s Economy Can Follow - Part I
There is increasingly a consensus in Beijing that China’s excessive reliance on surging debt in recent years has made the country’s growth model unsustainable.
Changing The Top Global Currency Means Changing The Patterns Of Global Trade
Giving up the use of the U.S. dollar for global trade and reserve accumulation would be very difficult for U.S. adversaries and would require major economic adjustments.
How Does Excessive Debt Hurt An Economy?
Most economists have trouble understanding why too much debt may harm an economy, let alone how much debt counts as too much.
EC Will China’s Common Prosperity Upgrade Dual Circulation?
Chinese leaders know that they want to discontinue the country’s existing growth model, but they haven’t yet landed on what the sustainable alternatives are.
EC What Does Evergrande Meltdown Mean For China?
The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster and more forcefully than Beijing’s financial regulators expected, putting pressure on them to move quickly to stop the contagion.
EC HH Why The Bezzle Matters To The Economy
The bezzle, a word coined in the 1950s by a Canadian-American economist, is the temporary gap between the perceived value of a portfolio of assets and its long-term economic value.
How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected The U.S. Job Market
A recent study on U.S.-China trade concludes that Trump’s trade policies cost the U.S. economy nearly a quarter-million jobs. But its obsolete understanding of trade flows ends up pointing trade policymakers in the wrong direction.
Foreign Saving Gluts And American Financial Imbalances
The idea that trade imbalances are more likely to be the result of credit imbalances than of savings imbalances ignores the role of savings imbalances in creating credit imbalances.
Why Foreign Debt Forgiveness Would Cost Americans Very Little
In today’s environment, sovereign debt forgiveness mainly represents a transfer within the creditor country. It benefits farmers and manufacturers in the creditor country at the expense of the country’s nonproductive savers.
EC Why Does It Matter If Interest Rates Are Below The GDP Growth Rate?
There is a widespread belief that a country’s national debt burden is sustainable if the interest rate on its debt is less than its expected GDP growth rate.
HH China’s Economy Needs Institutional Reform Rather Than Additional Capital Deepening
It is a mistake to assume that there is a global capital and technology frontier toward which every country must strive to acquire development. Economic development requires, above all, the right set of formal and informal institutions.
Why Higher U.S. Savings Won’t Save The Pandemic-Hit Economy
If the U.S. government does not decisively increase spending, higher American household savings will force either American debt or unemployment to rise even more.
EC Why It Won’t Matter Who Pays For Trade Protection
The debate about whether it is U.S. consumers or Chinese businesses that pay for American tariffs on Chinese-produced goods reveals absolutely nothing about whether the tariffs harm or benefit the U.S. economy.
EC MMT Heaven And MMT Hell For Chinese Investment And U.S. Fiscal Spending
There are conditions under which governments can create money—or debt—without fear of inflation or excessive debt burdens. There are other conditions that can lead to inflation and balance sheet problems.
Washington Should Tax Capital Inflows
Taxing capital inflows is a far better way to balance trade than imposing tariffs. This would address the root causes of trade imbalances, improve the productive investment process, and shift most of the adjustment costs onto banks and speculators.
1 to 16 of 52 Posts
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