Michael Gayed Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Strategist at Pension Partners, LLC

Michael A. Gayed, CFA is the Chief Investment Strategist at Pension Partners, LLC.

As Chief Investment Strategist, Michael helps to structure portfolios to best take advantage of various strategies designed to maximize the amount of time and capital spent in potentially outperforming ... more

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Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF: In For A Strong 2020
If you want to outperform the market, I think you have to find sectors or investments that have been under-owned and underperformed for several years. A great option is to get invested in it is the Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF (VO).
Spring Crash Potential Not About China
We don’t know is if the “very real chance of a Spring Crash” is underway. For weeks, I have been arguing that a storm was building. The most notable warning of a high risk period is the divergence of Lumber from the S&P 500.
EC The Lead-Lag Report: Nearing Changes Everywhere
An assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other, with an interpretation of what underlying market dynamics may be signaling about the future direction of risk-taking by investors.
The Lead-Lag Report: Cyclical Rotation Begins
Healthy economic data and a strong jobs report have investors rotating into cyclical and growth-oriented sectors and away from defensive and overseas markets.
Emerging Markets: Finally ?!
For the 592nd time, it looks like emerging markets are set to rally. But far and away, the most frustrating investment/trade/thesis has been betting on anything but US equities, and particularly positioning long into emerging markets.
Spring Crash Of 2019?
I call BS on the way the stock market’s rally has held over the last several weeks. The reality is that multiple indicators are flashing warning signs that I believe are being ignored by short-termism and overly excited market prognosticators.
It’s Not Over - Stocks Aren't Out Of The Woods Yet
Last week, markets rallied strongly, and the unrelenting streak of consecutive up weeks following the December lows continues. My problem with the move is that Utilities and Treasuries are not breaking down.
Double V Correction Now?
Last week, several indicators began flashing warning signs for the bulls, suggesting conditions are no longer favoring near-term upside in stocks.
Papa Powell And The Narrative Fallacy
Nothing like a huge rally in a month’s time to make everyone stop talking about a recession.
Well That Would Be Surprising
If you were told at the Christmas Eve lows for stocks that equities would have a monster move into 2019, and that we would go through the longest government shut down in history, what would you say?
Decline, Round 2?
Context always matters much more than opinion. There are a few things that might favor some on-going near-term strength.
Are We In The Shortest Recession Ever?
For all of the rhetoric around a recession that is either coming or already happening, it’s worth taking a step back, taking a deep breath, and looking at what the market itself is saying.
Government Shutdown: Melt-Up Or Sucker’s Rally?
From a macro perspective, the rally may not be over. Odds favor increased risk appetite in the weeks and month ahead (for now).
Everything Is About To Change (Again)
Since the election, markets have been under a severely delusional state. The narrative has been beautifully simple and elegant; President Trump is going to juice the economy through deregulation, tax cuts, and healthcare reform.
Extremes Trump Tranquility
The degree to which misinformation is spread and believed is remarkable. What is even more incredible is the extent to which people fall for small sample and recency bias.
The Real Enemy, And It’s Disturbing
The amount of misinformation being spread daily is nothing short of remarkable. What does this have to do with investing? Absolutely everything. At some point, the market prices in the actual truth, but only after overreacting in both directions.
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