John Kosar, CMT Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Market Strategist, Asbury Research LLC
Phone: 888-960-0005
Contributor's Links: Asbury Research

John has more than 30 years of experience and insight in analyzing and forecasting global financial markets. John spent the first half of his career on the trading floor of the Chicago futures exchanges, where he had the opportunity to learn how the US financial markets work from the inside out. ... more

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Finding Outperformance In A Dull Market
These are the charts that have the biggest influence on the upcoming price direction for the US market.
Prepare Yourself For Much Higher Long-Term Interest Rates
The recent rise above 1.37% to 1.47% in the yield of the benchmark 10-Year Note appears to be an emerging secular trend change, toward significantly higher long-term US interest rates.
US Market Vulnerable To A Much Deeper Decline
Heading into next week, the benchmark S&P 500 itself is still holding onto Tactical support by its fingernails.
Is A Correction Heading Our Way?
The US stock market is closing in on upside targets amid currently strong market internals. However, the market is also historically over-extended and history warns of a potentially nasty 1st Quarter decline.
Happy Holidays For Investors? Watch The Market’s Vital Signs
Despite the lack of upward follow-through thus far, as long as the S&P 500 index manages to remain above the 3505 upper boundary of its September-October indecision area, the bullish implications of its Nov 9th breakout will remain intact.
Positive Internal Market Metrics Fuel Rally From S&P 500 Support
As of October 5th, the SPX subsequently jumped 141 points or 4% higher over the next 5 days.
During Uncertain Times, Follow The Money
The market has made an incredible, if not unbelievable, recovery from its late March lows. Meanwhile, just this morning we learned the U.S. economy contracted at a record 32.9% annual rate last quarter.
US Stock Market At A Major Decision Point
The 3022 to 2955 area is likely to become the starting point of SPX’s next significant directional move, either up or down.
Will The March Recovery Hold? Know Your Levels.
SPX tested 3215 resistance on June 8th, failed there, and has since collapsed by 249 points or 8%, back into a band of major underlying support at 3017 to 2927.
The Market Must Not Be Watching The News
As long as the VIX remains below its 21-day MA, this improbable stock market rally — amid a global pandemic, 40 million people unemployed, a slew of corporate bankruptcies, and rioting in the streets — is likely to continue.
Bear Market Rally Or Resumption Of ’09 Advance? Watch Volatility.
As long as the VIX remains below its 21-day MA, it will indicate that investors are complacent enough to keep the current US broad market rally alive.
US Stock Market At A Major Decision Point - Thursday, May 7
The next best thing to knowing what the stock market is going to do next — which no one knows — is correctly identifying when it is at an important inflection point.
Bear Market Rally, Or Resumption Of 2009 Advance?
The benchmark US index ran into a formidable cluster of overhead resistance at 2822 to 2856, which represents the August and October 2019 benchmark lows and the 50-day moving average.
How Sustainable Is This Rally?
As of today SPX is now testing initial overhead resistance at 2722 to 2729 which represents the March and June 2019 lows.
Be Prepared For When The Music Stops
Tactical indicators tell you what’s happening today. Strategic indicators tell you what might be coming your way tomorrow.
US Stock Market: Beware Of A February Skid
Investors should be cautious about getting too aggressive at these levels — just in case the market’s long term seasonal tendency of January-February weakness play out again this year, just as it did back in 2016.
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