Jeffrey P. Snider Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Strategist at Alhambra Investment Partners LLC
Contributor's Links: Alhambra Investment Partners

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base.
Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at ... more

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Jamie Dimon (Still) Hates Bonds Because Inflation; Other Banks Apparently Love Bonds Because There’s No Credit To Inflation
The banking system – now through Q1 2021 – continues to de-risk the collective balance sheet.
Curve Shape Shifting, In The Wake Of Dots
Weakness continues to be strongly evident for the global system. Longer-term yields are, like 2018, even more firmly in the “sour, not soar” camp no matter what the FOMC dots plot out.
The FOMC Accidentally Exposes Itself (Reverse Repo-style)
With T-bill yields now underneath the RRP – just like 2017 – it draws a very real and tangible picture about why so much anti-reflation angst. An out-in-the-open collateral premium uncovered for the world to see.
The Chinese Have Their Own Policy ‘Dots’
The FOMC’s “hawkish” dots for their June 2021 assessment weren’t an acknowledgment of recent inflation data in the US. That’s how many are characterizing the change, modest as it actually was.
Another Round Of Transitory: US Retail Sales & (Revised) IP
Same stuff, different month.
Copper Corroding PPI
Yesterday, lumber. Today, copper. The “doctor” has been in reverse for better than two months now, with trading in the current session pounding the commodity to a new multi-month low.
Lumbering Economy And The Curves Behind Transitory Inflation
While capital “E” economics can never seem to get out of its own, infatuated with statistics and regressions instead, small “e” economics is proven time and again.
Global Factors First: Was There A US CPI Today?
Even outside of gasoline, prices are up strongly, too. Core consumer prices (seasonally-adjusted) another half a percent, itself the second highest in very long time (only less than April).
The Inflation Emotion(s)
Inflation is more than just any old touchy subject in an age overflowing with crude, visceral debates up and down the spectrum reaching into every corner of life.
An Entirely Too Familiar American (Anti)Inflationary Anecdote
One of the more compelling aspects of the last labor shortage, in an outright contradictory way, was how it was entirely made up of anecdotes.
Inflation/Rate Hike Probabilities Were Never High To Begin With, And Now, Despite CPI & Labor Shortage, They Are Even Less
Today, despite the out-of-this-world inflation numbers along with JOLTS Job Openings, the eurodollar futures curve like the Treasury yield curve is “somehow” pricing even lower probabilities of higher rates all over again.
April’s Payroll Jolt, Because Unprecedented Number Of Workers Just Quit?
What JOLTS is proposing is that for unknown reasons an extraordinary slice of the employed workforce decided they no longer wanted to work at the same jobs – even though, by the same data, they were not hired on anywhere else.
Inflation Or Deflation, China Or US Goods?
For the month of May 2021, China’s General Administration of Customs believes the total US$ value of exports exiting that country was an impressive-sounding $263.9 billion.
UST Yields, Reverse Repo, And…Payrolls
The economy should be doing better, the labor market should be coming back quicker, but it “somehow” doesn’t. Again.
Potential Fallout From PMI Wars
Markit puts its manufacturing index up a bit more in May 2021 (62.1) than from April (61.5), a record high for the series. ISM’s Manufacturing PMI likewise up a touch last month from the month before, though less than its record high set in March.
When You Aren’t Actually A Central Bank, Part 2: The Stubborn Deflation
Ever since March 2020, GFC2, Federal Reserve officials from Jay Powell on down have been busy patting themselves on the back for their splendid performance during last year’s big event.
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