Hale Stewart Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Financial Adviser; Complex Tax Planning; Captive Insurance Companies

F. Hale Stewart received his JD from the South Texas School of Law in 2003 and earned an LL.M. in international and domestic taxation from the Thomas Jefferson School of Law where he graduated magna cum laude.  Mr. Stewart has provided continuing education for the ... more

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Initial Jobless Claims Still A Positive; What I’ll Be Watching For Tomorrow
This morning’s initial jobless claims report continues the streak. At 203,000, it is the lowest since April.
November Vehicle Sales: The Consumer Is Alright, Producers Not Contracting
Vehicle sales are a significant short leading indicator. They tend to react after housing, but before broader consumer sales.
December Jobs Report: 2018 Goes Out With A Bang
December jobs report was a blockbuster report. About the only negative is the increase in the headline unemployment rate.
December ISM Manufacturing Points To Sharp Slowdown
The sharp decelerating trend in the Fed new orders indexes since May's high is apparent. Now the ISM has confirmed the deceleration in spades.
Unhappy New Year: Bond Yield Curve Inversion Spreads
A recession in the next 12 to 24 months is still not a sure thing.
Could An Oil Patch Decline Turn A 2019 Slowdown Into An Outright Recession?
The effects of a knock to "Saudi America" together with the effects of the trade wars, might be enough to turn a slowdown next summer that already looks "baked in the cake" into a recession.
November Housing Permits Boosted By Multifamily Dwellings
November was a *relatively* good month for housing permits, as in, improved *relative* to most of this year, although not at the heights of last winter.
The US Economy Did Not Boom In 2018
The production side of US economy, which was doing well at the beginning of 2018, did briefly boom during the summer, but the consumer side never joined it.
Real Retail Sales Very Positive; Industrial Production Decent
Real retail sales for November, together with the revisions for October, were very positive.
A Note On Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims for last week were reported at 206,000 this morning. That is one of the lowest weekly readings during this expansion.
Real Wage Growth: November 2018 Update
The growth in real wages is good news. It's just nearly good enough compared with the growth in business profits generated by the expansion.
The October JOLTS Report: Very Good Employment Market Continues, Just Below Best Levels
Monday's JOLTS report for October was, surprisingly, a little weaker than the employment report from one month ago, that I described at the time as perhaps the best in the entire expansion.
Scenes From The November Jobs Report
A few noteworthy highlights from Friday's employment report.
November Jobs Report: Another Good Report With Some Signs Of Deceleration
This was another good report. The worst that can be said is that it is a deceleration from last month's excellent report, which I described as overall the best of this entire expansion.
Consumer Spending Looks Like Classic Later Cycle Pattern
There were a couple of reports earlier in the week that shed some light on several important sectors.
A Note About The Financial Markets
In the past 10 years, bonds paid you very little, while stocks rewarded you handsomely.
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